Chart Update

This may be a response to provocative escalations over in Russia/Ukraine, it may also be F_O_M_C related nervousness or it may be what we were looking for, volatility increases as you near a new stage such as breaking out of stage 1 base to mark up or from stage 2 to stage 3, price goes nearly vertical before we hit a top and the same happens as we've already seen in the last couple of cycles, volatility gets larger and larger the further you are along in the stage.

The market is never static, this is why it's so difficult to create a systems trading approach, I've backtested every one that I've read about, created hundreds of my own and the only one that works trades 1-2 a year and no one would have the emotional capability to follow the rules so it's essentially a non-started as well, but it works, 1 of hundreds because the market is not static. Many systems work unbelievably until the market changes, then they fall off a cliff, that's been my experience in back testing literally hundreds of systems; volatility is always one of the killers of a systems based approach unless you are specifically trading volatility.

So earlier I warned there were some intraday negatives, nothing I was too worried about, however they are NOT steering divergences, they are migrating divergences meaning they are getting stronger and they are confirmed via other averages and VIX futures.

 SPY 1 min earlier negative has turned in to something else...

SPY 2 min migration, not a huge deal right now, but whenever there's migration, you have to be prepared for changes.

3 min just seeing migration, considering the lack of any migration last week, this is a pretty large change in character to move this far in half a day.

The IWM 2 min gives you a sense of the movement here and it not being about steering divergences.

And the IWM 3 min with migration of the above divegrence.

The 5 min has been negative so not a surprise.

QQQ 1 min also giving an idea of the strength in this move, as new as it is.

2 min migration starting to take hold...

However it may be the VXX confirmation that is most convincing that something is going on that may or may not be a reaction to news flow, I don't think it's F_O_M_C all things considered unless there is a leak.

 I wasn't sure if 1 day of 1 min positive accumulation in VXX was just chance or a change in character, today there's more confirmation that it's a change in character, this means pro traders are worried because they are not trying to protect gains as there barely are any, they are worried about something bigger.

Look at this outstanding VXX 2 min chart, I didn't draw on the positive divegrence because it was too beautiful to mark up.

I have a lot of looking around to do, checking single currency futures, carry pairs, leading indicators and news flow, I may be a bit quiet, but that's because I'll be busier than ever trying to decide if this is the "MOMENT" I'm looking for or if it's a knee jerk reaction to something else.

Either way, the progression in VXX is moving toward the goal or expectation we have and need to pick out the turning point best we can.

THIS IS WHY I WOULD NOT TAKE ON ANY LARGER A LONG POSITION THAN I DID, PROBABILITIES AND THOSE WERE CLOSED AT DECENT GAINS.