Monday, March 17, 2014

GDX/DUST follow up / New Position

Last week (in my follow up post) GDX had done what we were looking for the day before, it broke above resistance on distribution which makes it a head fake probability and excellent entry.

I may even add this to the trading portfolio even though it's very closely correlated to GLD, I'm just not chasing it.

Last week around Wednesday I believe we were waiting for what I was certain would be a head fake break, the next day it was there and confirmed and now the positions are moving in our direction, but to enter a new or add to, I want it moving the other way, I don't want to chase it, we might get that chance.

 The GDX (gold miners) breakout we were looking for, resistance was too obvious for there not to be a head fake move and 3C showing it was a head fake move with distribution in to the breakout.

The closer 3 min GDX shows the exact reversal/distribution point, however there's a small intraday positive forming, this is what may give us our break to start new positions or add to existing ones, we need a little bounce so if you like the idea, I'd set up price alerts above to warn you.

 GDX 10 min making it clear the break above resistance was a head fake with distribution above resistance, failed moves reverse fast, again there looks to be a small upside reversal candle that would likely only be an intraday event, but enough to give us better positioning in what's already a beautiful position.

 GDX 2 min intraday probable bounce and some target areas.

DUST, the 3x short gold miners that moves opposite GDX (this is where my trade would be, DUST long) had to do the opposite and break below defined support and price a head fake with accumulation, it clearly did just that.

 Look at that leading divegrence at the head fake, all the stops were accumulated.

So we have a minor intraday negative, it will probably materialize and you can see why I don't want to chase, I want to buy the pullback.

I'll be setting alerts, if you are interested I'd do the same, I'll follow up if any decent ones are hit and likely enter a long DUST position.

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