Monday, March 10, 2014

Market Update: Friday's Analysis is Coming Together

For me, I see this as a good thing, when a market does what you expect that's evidence you are on the right track and you may recall I had two expectations, some early strength this week (likely Monday, but every time I say 1 day it ends up being longer so lets just follow the market) and the second part was the pullback in VIX futures would strengthen them, that would open up the VXX long and at that point, I'd essentially be saying, we are at the downside pivot after 2 trading weeks of lateral trade.

I'll admit earlier this morning it looked like things may slide, but we are back on track and still have good confirmation on the second part of the analysis, the pivot.

 This is the 1 min VXX chart with a negative I expected on Friday to see some early minor weakness which should help it's positive divergences as that is accumulated, that's really the timing key.

 The 2 min VXX is in line, the point being is the negative intraday divergence is very weak, exactly what was expected Friday.

The SPY that had no positive at all and was just losing ground earlier has formed a 1 min positive as you can see so this is good as it joins the Q's which have actually weakened a bit.

 And just as the 2 min VXX is in line, the 2 min SPY is weak, being these trade opposite of each other, this is excellent confirmation.

The 2 min SPY on an intraday basis is no more than in line, again the positive divegrence we expected the charts to pick up from where they left off Friday, but it's very weak which was the expectation Friday.

 QQQ  2 min strength from Friday, but it's losing a bit now.

The 1 min chart may explain why, new divergences (weakness) start on the earliest charts, it looks to have skipped over to the 2 min a bit as well.

 QQQ 3 min is already weak so you can see where the market has a problem even with some strength, also note the price pattern, that's likely a reversal formation, it's also quite small, Friday's analysis seems to be right on track.

Finally the IWM 2 min joined the SPY.

I have some assets to look at for entries, but from this point it should be just waiting for our analysis to play out and then taking positions which may come in a hurry.

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