Wednesday, March 19, 2014

Trade Idea: GDX / NUGT Long (SHORT TERM TRADE)

I'm actually going to use some in the money April call options because of the duration of the trade looks to be very small, I will leave the longer term trend DUST (3x short GDX/Gold miners) in place as it is a different trade/trend).

I see this as a very short duration position and that's why I'm using the leverage, if it were longer in duration (probabilities), I wouldn't need the leverage to make the profit potential worthwhile. That being said, I think you could easily get away with NUGT (3x long GDX/Gold miners) if you prefer an equity position over an option position.

I think this is more of a relief type/oversold bounce, but it looks good enough to play. It could also be a reaction to the F_O_M_C if there is a leak already out, in that case a knee jerk reaction to the upside would make sense as the GDX (which is not as good as gold for this purpose, but the GLD signals aren't as strong) chart looks like the move would be short in duration, JUST LIKE A KNEE JERK MOVE.

Here are the charts for GDX, I included a confirmation of NUGT (long)

 GDX 1 MIN Leading positive today in a flat, reversal-like area.

3 min chart is positive as well and we have positive signals on the 5 min in addition, which is enough for me for a quick options position, It will be speculative in size, likely half size.

 The main trend however in GDX on a 30 min chart has a leading negative divegrence, it trumps anything above by a mile and this is why I have no problem leaving the longer term DUST position in place.


This is the 3x long gold miners/GDX, NUGT, it would make a decent long if you didn't want the options exposure or that much leverage.

THE ONLY ISSUE I DO HAVE AND THAT IS WHY I'M TREATING POSITION SIZE AND RISK MANAGEMENT AS SPECULATIVE (other than the shorter duration of the trade signals) IS THAT DUST IS NOT CONFIRMING, HOWEVER GDX AND NUGT ARE ENOUGH FOR ME ON A SPEC. POSITION.

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