Monday, April 21, 2014

AAPL Follow Up

*Just as a general note for the overall market this morning, things seem rather dull*

AAPL is currently an open Trading portfolio (tracking) long position and I'm trying to decide what to do with it as I think it has some upside based on the "W" formation of the last approximately 2 weeks, but also the recent pullback signals and AAPL happens to be at a resistance area. If I were looking at this as a swing trade and not that interested in trading around it (especially with a smaller account where transaction costs  become more of an issue), I'd probably take no action.

However, I suspect the same "additional work" I talked about Friday in reference to a market pullback ...

"My initial impression is we get a pullback early next week, I want to say Monday, but there may be a little more work to do before we are there"

may be the deciding factor.

 This is a larger view of the 1 min AAPL chart with a larger relative negative divegrence, remember a relative divegrence is the weaker form, but its size is what gives it some credibility for a short term pullback.

 This is the same chart looking at Friday and this morning thus far, again, a relative negative with a bit of a leading negative component developing intraday.

 This is the 2 min chart, in line with the overall market, especially signals after 2 pm on Thursday afternoon...

Here we have a positive that launches this move in AAPL, in line at the green arrow and a relative negative on the 3 min chart, I suspect the answer to, "What will I do with the AAPL trading position?" will be answered as the day goes on, which is also what I'm looking at for the broader market and whether it makes sense to add to positions opened Friday or perhaps even new ones.

This is where AAPL becomes more of an interesting question...
 The 5 min chart is showing a larger base, an in line status on the initial move and a very small relative negative divegrence, if this were to develop in to something larger, I'd probably close the AAPL long, wait for a pullback and re-enter, it is at a small profit now, but only a couple of percent; it's more about playing defense.

 The 10 min chart of AAPL shows the "W" formation that has what appears to be a head fake in place (to most it would just look like a lower low, but the increasingly positive divegrence suggests a "W" base that saw a stop run, this is also in line with the broad overall market. We also have a leading positive divegrence to the far right.

These charts are what make the short term question a bit harder and why I would likely just hold AAPL long if I were working with a smaller trading account or if I didn't have as much time to pay attention to the market.

*The move under the yellow trendline would be considered the head fake move of the "W" base.*

At 15 mins the AAPL chart shows good divergent signals that worked out well, there's an unresolved positive divegrence (at the "W" area) to the far right.

Like the rest of the market today, the short term question of AAPL and the possibilities it brings such as a new position (long) for those interested on a possible pullback in AAPL, look like they are only going to be resolved with a little more time as I suspected Thursday afternoon.

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