Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Early Update

Even though the futures got a lift overnight from Chinese Q1 GDP data which came in at 7.4% y.o.y. vs consensus of 7.3% and sequentially at 1.4% vs. consensus of 1.5% for an annualized 5.7%, well below the Chinese norm/expectations leading to speculation that the PBoC would enact some sort of easing which they have said several times (I'm paraphrasing), "If you are expecting QE/ Monetary Easing, DON'T!" on top of the news that Japan is going to downgrade their economic assessment leading to more QE/stimulus expectations even though Abe, the creator of Japan's Godzilla-like Abenomics has made it clear he's not looking for moor QE. On top of that the case is being made overnight for ECB stimulus sending futures higher.

I believe you saw what the market looked like at the close yesterday, it looked like a pullback was probable.

After giving the market a little time with its gap up I decided I didn't like what I saw short term as far as the May QQQ $84 and URTY long positions go (I'll post the P/L when things settle down a bit), here's a look...
 SPY confirmed the gap on intraday 1 min charts at first, but couldn't move any further, this is why I gave it as long as I did.

SPY 2 min charts could not confirm and as of yesterday's close, a move lower or a pullback looked very likely in the very short term (meaning early today).

This is the 1 min QQQ which showed a negative in to yesterday afternoon's close, that kept going on the open so no confirmation there.

The 2 min chart agreed.

And the IWM 1 min was the same, no confirmation on the 1 min intraday (I use these because they are the fastest to confirm or not).

 And the IWM 2 min chart needs no commentary.

As far as the bigger picture of a bounce, that still looks alive and well, although there are several things that I saw in Index futures and USD/JPY that I did NOT like as far as a market bounce near term goes, I'll post those in another post since I expect the market to be moving soon.

 5 min IWM (this is just an example timeframe, there are stronger charts)

 Such as the SPY 30 min positive divergence

And the QQQ 10 min positive.

I basically went flat on short term trade while maintaining my heavily short bias on just about everything else.

I'll have the P/L for those positions as well as the futures out as soon as it looks like I can take my eye off the market for a couple of minutes.

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