Quick Update

Honestly I'm a bit surprised the market has managed to stay in the area as long as it has intraday, I think that's about to change and I still think it's going to be moving to a second bottom of a larger "W" as I mentioned in regard to the QQQ as that's the one I've had the most interest in opening either some calls or maybe a leveraged long ETF like QLD or TQQQ.

Essentially I'm looking for this before taking any action and thus far this is a pretty fair guess as to what we should expect...

 QQQ 5 min intraday expectations have been for a pullback toward support forming a wider "W" type reversal process.

The intraday charts have been pointing to a pullback so those who took gains on the QQQ calls from yesterday, nice play. WASH, RINSE, REPEAT. This 3 min negative intraday has been suggesting a pullback most of the day, it looks like it's likely coming now so that's one of the reasons I wanted the GLD / GDX positions cleaned up so there was some dry powder for such a pullback.

As far as the intermediate charts, the QQQ to me still looks the best even though the SPY is finally catching up, this leading positive 10 min chart looks great.

 As far as longer term expectations, this 60 min chart shows distribution at stage 3 and it's still leading negative.

The 4 hour chart is leading negative in a big way, this is a different trend that we'll get to on a market bounce.

We can draw the trend lines a few different ways, if we draw them like this we have a Channel Buster, that would put a target up around or above the upper trend channel before it heads back down.

At #5 the volume also suggests a Channel Buster, the increasing volatility of a late stage top also fits the bill, this is what I was talking about yesterday in saying the long trade is the hitch-hiking trade, it's really entering or adding to primary/trend short positions on the bounce that is the real trade here and whether you felt comfortable trading the long side was something each person has to decide for themselves based on their risk tolerance as probabilities are clearly to the downside.

That said, a nice bounce sets up nice shorts, the market is clearly coming undone here, but tomorrow's F_E_D minutes should introduce a lot of volatility which also fits the bill , making me thin more and more that they were leaked as far back as last week when we first saw signs of a base forming up early this week (Friday afternoon).

We could also draw the February cycle this way with the Q's having entered stage 4 either way with a Volatility shakeout like the IWM, the EXACT same concept as the VSO after a H&S neckline is broken, the third and last place I'll short a H&S top.

In that case, we'd still have a target on the upside somewhere in the same area, it would likely have to pass above the apex of the descending triangle to hit short seller stops, even though retail is wildly bullish.

It's for these reasons that I think less leveraged assets will work just fine too like 2-3x leveraged ETFs (long) rather than options or a blend, heck you could probably just buy the Q's if you don't like leverage.

So we are just on patrol right now looking for the next entry (long) for this bounce move, IN NO WAY DO I SEE ANYTHING THAT MIGHT CHANGE OR SAVE THIS MARKET, IT'S STILL UGLIER THAN JUST ABOUT ANY MARKET I'VE SEEN GOING BACK OVER A CENTURY.