Friday, April 25, 2014

Trade IDEA: FXP / FXI (LONG)

I fully expect FXP to pullback and fill in some of the gaps and at that time I want to get long FXP again, but for the very near term FXI (China 25 ) long looks very interesting, it's not the high beta I'd prefer, but still looks solid for a swing type trade. I might even consider a call option in FXI as there''s quite a bit more volume there than FXP.

 THIS IS THE REAL TRADE I'M INTERESTED IN LONGER TERM (LONG), FXP (SHORT CHINA 25).  This is a channel buster so resistance around the lower channel after it broke down is not uncommon, but at some point these tend to blast right back in to the channel and often to the upper end of it and as you know I like China short for a longer term play,  but for now it looks like FXP is going to pullback which makes FXI (long China 25) which has much better volume, look intriguing.

Note the Doji daily candlestick on a gap (Evening Star Doji-almost shooting star)... that's  a bearish reversal candle (down). Volume doesn't look very good either.

 This is the longer term FXP 60 min chart and the negative followed by the positive which we bought and then sold with a gain looking for a new entry on a pullback, this may be that pullback, but why not trade it with FXI long (effectively short FXP)?

This is the near term 3 min chart for FXP, it looks a lot like a strong pullback signal here which makes FXI interesting as a long.

Here's FXI's daily chart, a head fake/stop run with a bullish daily reversal candle...? Looks that way.

Here's the 60 min chart for FXI, it was negative as FXP was pushing higher off the lows, but now we have a positive divegrence in FXI.

The 15 min chart looks great as well.

And the 5 min chart, so timing thus far also looks on track, both 3C and daily candlesticks.

Here's the 2 min intraday chart, this is a VERY hard chart to ignore.

I'm likely going to enter at least a long FXI position, but I'd like to add a little leverage to it so I may take on some May 17th $34  Calls.

I'll let you know whether I go for the calls, but I will at least take an equity long in FXI for now.



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