Wednesday, April 2, 2014

TSLA TRADE FOLLOW UP

On the 28th I posted TSLA Update & Possible Trade Set-Up, we were looking for a gap fill from the 28th which happened the next day on the 31st as a long / Call entry.

Since then there has been some chop, but a decent little trend to the upside.

If I were still in the position, I'd start considering taking some profits off the table, especially in option positions, long equity may have a bit more room.

Here's what I mean... and this is likely to end up as a nice short entry soon as well due to the probabilities (longer charts), but we aren't there yet..

 This was the last update and the gap fill we were looking for as a position entry which came the next day on the 31st.

This is a broad "W", this is why I like this still as a long equity position, not sure I'd chase it here, but as a call position, I might tighten up standards, especially at resistance like this.

This is that same "W" on a daily chart...

 Overall the 4 hour chart tells me the probabilities are that this sets up as a nice longer term short position, looking at the daily chart there is a negative divegrence, but it is far from the worst looking asset, still it should move well on a good short entry.

This 15 min chart's leading positive divegrence (notice how much it leads on the 31st and right after) is the reason I like this as an equity long still, as far as calls right now, in my view they are to be managed, not entered at this stage unless an opportunity comes up.

Intraday 1 min looks to be in line, but...

The 1 min trend on a breakout shows there';s less 3C backing now at the breakout than there was at the last resistance high.

 The 2 min chart shows a mini "W" on the 31st, this is what I mean by, "Our concepts are fractal and work in all timeframes and all assets". Note the intraday distribution taking place as the breakout takes place, this is why I'd be watching calls very carefully, I want to be out before momentum dies and you can always re-enter them on a pullback. The equity long however doesn't have the same issues and that 15 min chart still looks good for TSLA.



Here's the 60 min chart's "W" on a daily chart, you can see the gap fill and then some, likely hitting orders/stops below the gap.

I'M SETTING ALERTS FOR A PULLBACK AND HOPEFULLY CAN GET A DECENT CONSTRUCTIVE PULLBACK TO EITHER ENTER CALLS OR LONG EQUITY POSITION.

 THE 3 MIN IS NEGATIVE TOO SO IT LOOKS LIKE THERE'S BEEN SOLID PROFIT TAKING IN TO THE BREAKOUT TODAY.

This is the 5 min chart.

As I said above, I think this is more about management of current positions right now, hopefully there's a long position that opens up with better prices and lower risk to play that 125 min chart and make sure it holds.

Eventually that should lead to a nice short set up.

Good luck 

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