Monday, May 19, 2014

FXI June $36 Put Trade Update

As the signals pointed to Friday, FXI JUNE $36 PUT UPDATE, FXI did come back down today and thus the put position is back in the green and I think I'll continue to hold that one open.

With the latest Chinese housing data just out and the housing market slowing down significantly, as well as the probability of more corporate/bond defaults (and banking issues), FXI short (puts) seem poised to continue to gain in the near term (FXP is an UltraShort ETF that can be used as a way to short FXI with 2x leverage if you don't care for options, but that position was best opened Friday when this update was posted, FXI JUNE $36 PUT UPDATE).

Here's what we have now...
 This is the intraday chart, leading negative Friday, suggesting today's gap down.

However I do expect more...
 The 2 min leading negative

3 min leading negative

5 min is leading negative and getting worse. This is about where I saw the end of the duration of the trade, at the 5 min chart, however, recently...

That last move on Friday which was a false breakout (head fake) looks like the 15 min chart is going negative as well, so there may be even more downside here than initially thought, thus FXP may not be a bad play at all if we get a little bounce to lower risk on the entry.

For now, I'm just leaving this one open and will be looking for the longer term play in FXP.

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