Opening Update

Most of the averages (except the SPY) are NOT confirming the early price move, as expected and shown last night on the charts of the major averages (their ETFs), the worst performing yesterday had the best signals yesterday and are the best performing today and vice versa.

The lack of intraday confirmation so far is not too surprising given this afternoon's event risk. However, I think there's more to it than just opening divergences in the averages, they are also not seeing confirmation in index futures (ES, NQ and TF), however I think perhaps the biggest influence at the moment is treasuries. I'm not saying TLT is ready to bounce, but iot does look like treasuries are starting to find some support from the overnight selling ahead of the F_O_M_C minutes and yesterday the market's correlation with USD/JPY gave out after USD/JPY broke below its 200-day moving average, the market stayed stronger and was moving with bond Yields so if bonds put in some support in the area, that should put a roof on this morning's early and somewhat parabolic upside.

I'll keep checking bond futures as well as the ETFs like TLT to see if they look as if they'll bounce, that may be a little too much to ask before the 2 p.m. minutes.