Market Update

On an intraday basis, there's what you might call "time buying", which is usually just part of the reversal process unless we were ahead of a big event like the F_O_M_C. There are quite a few intraday steering type divergences that don't amount to much other than in line here and there intraday, if you back out to trend on those same charts and it's a very different story.

More importantly, the signals being generated or damage being done in this area is so obvious, I am not even marking the charts in those cases unless I'm trying to point out a specific period or concept. The SPY still probably has the best underlying relative performance, but this is not anything I'd place a trade on, not even a 1-day option. The QQQ and now the DIA are easily the worst, the IWM is about in line which is a major downgrade from where it was as price performance is making clear the momentum of the "relative outperformance" we were forecasting for the IWM is dead and now looks to be clearly in the reversal process, the signals are what makes things so clear here.

We don't always have very clear signals, we didn't for nearly 3 months and the Trade Idea posts declined by 90%, looking back now though we can see why the signals weren't there as a 3 month range is the worst possible area to try to trade, it's just a meat grinder whether long or short unless you are writing options.


DIA

 I don't think I need any notations on the intraday chart, you can see why it's now one of the worst underlying performers, I'll be looking closely again at Dow-20 / transports as I'm very interested in a position there.

 2 min DIA, MIGRATION

 3 min with some perspective as to where and when this deterioration is occurring and scale, we are now at 3C lows not seen since May 30th and got there in 2-days.

 This 15 min chart is what I mean by , "Very Obvious Signals".

IWM intraday nearly perfectly in line

The 2 min with minor adjustments, that's the 10 a.m-ish lows and then a negative as price moves up after 2 pm, this looks a lot like range bound of VWAP-type setting of price.

The same general concept on the 3 min chart

And just to make the point not only of the signal on this 15 min chart, but the point that this move was not due to accumulation, the last decent accumulation was the February lows/rally, this was the bear flag/Crazy Ivan momentum slingshot that led to short covering.

QQQ 1 min, again a lot of minor steering like divegrences, but back the same chart out to trend...

 A very different picture emerges, this is why I encourage looking at all timeframes, including 5-day and monthly.

The 3 min chart and this is just a theme at this point through all the averages with the same kind of intense damage at the same place which happens to be just about right for a head fake move's reversal process when you consider the proportionality of the preceding trend and what it was meant to do.

 SPY 1 min intraday,

2 min, same theme of "steering"

Back it out to trend and you can see the bear flag and Crazy Ivan bear trap/sling shot leading to a short squeeze rather than actual accumulation to create the move. We did predict this would happen at the time the bear flag first showed up, even right down to the Crazy Ivan.

And taking it from the same area, looking at a simple 15 min chart, you can see what I mean about "clear signals".