MCP Position Update

I was just preparing a post on MCP before AAPL, I had captured the first chart and was going to say, "MCP's range since the post-earning's plunge is looking very well defined, the charts have held up great, it looks like a quick head fake move under the very defined range and support would make for an interesting entry or add to." as MCP is still a partial position (from pre-earnings) and I've been waiting for the right moment to add to it which I feel is near, thus the reason I started putting the post together.

This was the first chart I captured before moving on to the AAPL update and coming back to MCP. Notice the 2 min trend of a leading positive divergence at the post-earnings range, ALSO NOTICE HOW I PUT THE WHITE (LEADING POSITIVE DIVERGENCE) BOX RIGHT AT SUPPORT so I could say, "This looks like it's ready on the charts and just needs to hit stops below a defined support level.

This is right after I finished the AAPL post and came back to MCP...

 To the left we have short term capitulation on the post earnings decline and the range that formed, the charts have held up excellent in this range and that's the reason I've kept MCP open; it's VERY much like the RIMM scenario/trade we had with positives in to earnings, bad earnings and a big drop, but the charts held up, then we got an upside move on a big management shakeup of the two CEOs moving on which not only got us back to pre-earnings entry level, but a double digit gain from there. The positive divergence we were tracking in RIMM pre-earnings was thought to be an earnings leak, but what it really was reflecting was inside information about a huge RIMM shakeup that changed RIMM to BBRY (Blackberry).

You can see to the far right as I was putting the AAPL post out, MCP made the move I was going to point out.

This is a closer look (5 min), volume surged so stops were hit as they place them at such an obvious level, right at support.

The price action here should be watched very carefully if you are interested in an MCP long or add to as I am. I'm setting upside price alerts at $2.70 which will end the stop-run, then $2.75 and $3.00 which is the big one, if we get above $3.00 I think MCP will run and I'd even be willing (not my favorite scenario) to take on shares above $3 even though that's chasing. I'd much prefer strong 3C signals before we move above $2.70 to add to (or start) MCP.

 This 15 min chart shows the distribution or supply just before earnings, it seems there was some inside information, then the positive divegrence in to the move lower.

You may remember we had an MCP trading position that broke out of a triangle of some size (multiple months) and we exited the trade that day even though it was up around 6% (most traders don't exit a breakout from a triangle that's up 6%, but one of the main reasons was MCP's year plus base had VERY defined support and that had not seen a head fake move at that point and I didn't trust a breakout of such a large base area without a head fake move first. Later in the day 3C confirmed there was no confirmation of the breakout and we exited the trade that day at a 5+% gain on the day.

However the real strength and interest in MCP long is on stronger charts with higher probabilities.

Like this leading positive on a 60 min chart. The trend is even larger.

60 min trend, you can see the GS report that knocked MCP lower in to an accumulation zone at the bottom of the year plus range, I assume the vampire squid (GS) used that move to accumulate as someone with some firepower has sent a 60 min 3C chart leading positive ever since. Additionally the trend of the 60 min chart has kept MCP in a leading positive position EVEN AFTER the earning's price collapse, which looks exactly right proportionally for a head fake move on a base of that size with support at the exact same area since April of 2013. Even the reversal process is proportional to the base size and the charts obviously not only held up, but moved to even higher leading positive levels, at new highs (3C).

And the 2 hour MCP chart with a sharp leading positive divegrence right at the post-earnings range.

If interested, I'd set those alerts, > $2.70 will be the first significant move, stops were hit this morning as volume makes clear.