Wednesday, June 11, 2014

Trade Idea/Reiteration -Longer Term : NFLX

I don't know how many more times I can put NFLX out as an idea, but as it remains in a beautiful spot, I can't not put it out there as it is by far one of my favorite non-market correlated (as in inverse ETFs like QID, SQQQ, SPXU, SDOW, etc.) stocks.

I've already gone through all of the timeframes which look excellent, I've shown the confirmation of a H&S top, I've told you there's only 3 places I'll short a H&S top and this is the second and sometimes the last, depending on market conditions. I'm going to make my last pitch of the idea pretty simple.

 You are looking at a daily chart of NFLX, to the left is the head in the H&S and currently is the top of the right shoulder, this is where I want to short these patterns practically right on the nose.

If you can see the ROC by the trendlines I drew of the right shoulder, you can see momentum falling off, that's where we go in to the reversal process or a rounding "U-shaped" area. If you look at the last trading week (5-days including today), NFLX is down 0.47%, intraday it can look like it's strong, but step back, it's at that moment when the stall starts to turn to the fall.

 The most important charts for me for the long term idea are the 4 hour above at the H&S top and...

The 60 min as it shows the timing of the Head short entry and the right shoulder short entry as the 60 min chart leads negative at both.

 I included the 30 min, it has a bit more detail, the accumulation needed to create the right shoulder so smart money can dump at higher levels and in to demand which you can see happened, these charts are looking excellent across the board in all timeframes.

 And this is the 2 min intraday, I really don't know how much time NFLX has before shorting becomes chasing and I prefer not to chase.

The only way I would consider a put at this point would be an intraday move above this trendline around $435, otherwise, I'd rather stick with the longer term trending short position.

I have figured the price pattern implication gives us a target somewhere around $200, possibly lower as these have a tendency to overshoot. being the market has been lifted artificially since 2009, there may be an even bigger surprise than that.

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