Tuesday, July 15, 2014

Opening Indications

Yellen's testimony started at 10 a.m., I'm sure her prepared comments were released earlier than that, I haven't had a chance to see what she has said so far, but I can't imagine her straying too far from her dismissive dovish tone of the last press conference.

There's notable weakness early on in the averages, as I said earlier, the damage done yesterday on 3-5 min charts would not be undone by the 1-2 min afternoon positive divergences which did their job in gapping the market higher except in the case of the DIA which did not have such a divegrence interestingly.

So far, here's what we have (like yesterday I'm not ready to start calling out short trade entries on this little data, unless the trade itself has strong charts, but I'd prefer the individual assets as well as the market look the same at the same time. I do recall showing yesterday the inverse ETFS showing accumulation and the 3x long showing distribution and those ETFs in my portfolio are the ones at a gain today thus far as well as a small move in MCP in which I maintain the long equity position even though the call was closed yesterday.

 SPY's late day 2 min positive followed through and gapped SPY up, but since then it has been nearly perfectly in line, no divergence. It's a bit too early to see what the 3-5 min charts are doing yet, but I'm anxious to see.

There are other indications of the trouble in the market this morning being more than just simply passing noise.

The Q's with the same 1 min positive yesterday gapping it up this morning, but since then, in line, no divergence other than 3C confirming price action.

This is some of the damage from the QQQ 3 min chart yesterday and it's almost as if the Q's are catching down to that trouble which would be strange in my view this early with the divegrence posted last week which should allow a bounce to get more mileage.


IWM 3 min negative divegrence damage from yesterday and the IWM is catching down to that trouble, remember the Russell 2000 leads the market and last week it saw a -4% move, the largest move in the market on a weekly basis this year I'd hazard as a guess.

 Intraday the IWM 1 min chart shows some "seeming" accumulation intraday on a very small scale of the lower move, but this could also be 3C simply lagging price a bit.

 This is the IWM 5 min chart, which had the strongest underlying positive divegrence last week, the chart is still in decent shape, but there are some cracks appearing which is odd considering how little the IWM has moved.

 The same 5 min chart zoomed to intraday is nothing more than IWM price confirmation.

And the DIA, the one average that did not have yesterday afternoon's positive 1/2 min divergences has seen it's initial move higher distributed apparently in early trade.

Not only that, but the 3 min chart is already showing increasing damage.

 This is the DIA's 1 min chart from yesterday and this morning, it was negative at the close so the rejection of higher prices on the open is not a big surprise, the continuing damage is interesting as this is a fast chart that keeps up and is leading the DIA lower.

As  said, there is evidence this is more than passing a.m. noise, the TICK data is rather extreme already.

We have already seen -1300 readings, that's a lot more stocks selling off than moving up and nothing thus far even above +750 which is neutral more or less.

I'm looking forward to getting the 5 min data, in the meantime I'm going to run through the watchlists and see if anything is seeing significantly more damage as well as the inverse and leveraged ETFs which often give signals earlier than the averages.





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