Monday, August 25, 2014

A.M. Update

There wasn't a whole lot to see pre-market, all of the carry trades are in some version of down, there was some movement in the Euro/Dollar, but nothing that exciting at this point (which moved gold a bit and then took it back).

Interestingly the 3C charts for the Index futures have exact confirmation in the averages, even though each index future is slightly different.

ES has a relative negative divergence, SPY hasn't tried to confirm this morning's gap up at all so it also has a relative negative divergence on the open.

NQ did confirm on this chart and the Q's are reaching toward intraday/opening confirmation.

TF was negative twice overnight and in to the open and both sent TF lower, the IWM is not trying to confirm so it is in a relative negative divergence on the open.


There wasn't the short squeeze I thought we might see, this is pretty much just in line with the broad market.

HYG however is broken, all that damage last week is very apparent in the charts and price action. Remember how HYG led the base, led the bounce, now it's leading the top/decline next. No hint of confirmation on HYG's open so far.


The 5 min trend shows a good example of a cycle, although the base area isn't as large as the broader market, remember HYG has been leading the market, it's already pretty much through a lot of the choppy, sideways reversal process so HYG should be an interesting timing bellwether for the broader market. I'm going through watchlists again as the changes in character will be distinct there too as well as the opportunities.


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