First I want to show you the furthest out we have confirmation for a bounce using the SPY 3C signals and derivative ETFs which (as we've seen in the SPY before and in GDX now) will move independently of each other even though price tracks the same, volume doesn't.
SPY 15 min leading positive, yet this is still not a big base so I wouldn't be too impressed by the 15 min chart, I would say considering the timeframe and the size of the base, it's along the lines of what was expected for this week in Friday's "Week Ahead" post.
The 3x long SPY, UPRO has the same negative and positive 15 min signals. SPXU, the 3x short SPY should have the opposite of the two above for confirmation.
And SPXU has a leading negative 15 min.
Intraday it looks like the Q's are the first to find an intraday bottom and probably the start of the end of the base process.
QQQ 1 min intraday.
I suspect the Russian / Ukraine (which are probably the most important macro events of the week being a lighter economic data week) nervousness which sent Gold higher and stocks lower has been used to accumulate the second part of the "W" base.
I'm leaving the current positions in place, but I don't think I'll add anymore long exposure beyond the IWM calls, the XLF calls and GDX calls (UNG is a separate matter). I'm leaving all of the core short positions in place as well, they should have plenty of hedge if this is the end of the base process.
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