SPX-2000 Again

It's interesting to think about what SPX 2000 is, it's a psychological magnet for sure, but what it is so far is a +.30% gain. What's telling about it so far is what it has not been, at least as of yesterday's SPX-2000. Yesterday around the European close, SPX failed to hold 2000, with some help from HYG intraday it made another attempt, but gave that up as VIX spiked in to the close. Given the psychological level, the breakout buyers and the higher short interest in the market, it's a bit surprising from a psychological / technical view that it didn't hold or even more so that it didn't see follow through to the upside (breakout buyers and short squeezes), especially given the fact that a head fake move in this area would be expected and they are generally convincing, look at GDX near the close yesterday.

So far this is what we have with an interesting TICK spike and then retreat.

 Yesterday's failed attempt and intraday highs, as well as this morning's recapture of 2000 and a break through intraday highs.

Here's a closer look at the SPX intraday. At 10:46 on the stronger candle push above yesterday's intraday highs there was a burst in TICK to extreme levels...

 At 10:46 there was a TICK reading of nearly +1400, a strong move that looked like the start of a short squeeze, but then fell back in to a narrow range of just about +/- 750.


The MSI Index shows no impressive or sustained short squeeze if any at all other than relative performance.

There has been a strange pattern of deterioration right after the European close as you can see when the SPY/SPX lost the 2000 level yesterday and today there's even less in the way of confirmation for SPY, it will be interesting to see what happens in the next 15 to 30 minutes as a predictable trend is starting to develop.

HYG gave the market a little help today, a continuation from yesterday''s second shot at 2000 which failed.

The IWM has a lot of catching up to do, even to our original bounce targets, but is also not confirming. The Q's are confirming, but showing poor relative performance and the DIA is not confirming. The European close is almost here so we'll see if this is a trend, if so it may be an interesting one for however much longer it lasts, but also may be a clear message we are not giving enough weight.