Friday, September 19, 2014

MCP Follow Up

I hope someone got filled on the Trade IDea: (short term options) MCP,  I didn't, but if I had, I'd be looking at a +25-+62% gain for 40 minutes of market exposure. (* I just got word that at least one member got in the position and is at a gain)

Wednesday, MCP Bullish Signal was posted with an interesting day yesterday, but a day that again is a micro version of a macro concept, that's the beauty of these concepts, they are fractal in nature, able to be used in any kind of trading on any timeframe in just about any asset for the simple reason that human emotion , including how technical traders react to certain events, is the same no matter what duration or asset they trade.

MCP spent 6 days inside the range of the 9/9, which was forming an obvious support level which makes it more likely a stop run will be forced before an upside move, or a head fake which occurred yesterday and was not a fund day being long there, but the one thing I was looking for rather than panic and just sell it, was increasing volume, larger than the previous day, with some signs of positive divergences which were showing up. A Hammer close would have been nice as well, especially on that volume.

I say this is a micro version of a macro concept based on volume. Think about the Dominant Price/Volume themes I track every night. Close Up and Volume up, the most bullish of the 4 possible combinations, but almost always leads to a 1-day overbought event which closes lower the next day. It's not the move up, it's that with the high volume. Conversely, Close Down/Volume Up, is almost always a sign of a capitulation event and a 1-day oversold event with the market or asset closing higher the next day so yesterday's rising volume, often indicative of stop runs, was a welcome site with price looking the way it was.

 This is the intraday MCP move with a strong close on volume
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 The daily chart looks like this with a +12% gain on the day. You can see yesterday's large volume which is the only reason I didn't close MCP yesterday. Today's candlestick taken with yesterday's also forms a bullish Harami reversal pair, called "Mother with baby" in Japanese or an inside day here in the west, it's a bullish upside reversal candle.

 There was a clear support area yesterday that was tagged with huge volume on the stop run, note that it was accumulated. This was interesting, but not yet enough for an options trade.

Today's leading divergences on charts like this 3 min and the 5 min below...

are ultimately what made me decide to take on MCP calls even though it was up nearly 5 % on the day, it closed over +12% on the day with bullish candlesticks, a head fake move and strong 3C divergences.

Good luck to those who took it on, I suspect you'll be very happy very soon.

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