This was a short term options (call) position I was considering yesterday,
AAPL Call Possibility , however after watching the market and AAPL some more and considering the risk that I can't control before the market opened today,
AAPL, EOD Action and Risk
Today's price action looks a lot like an options expiration max-pain pin, so I'm glad I waited, but this is still a speculative position. I used a longer expiration than I think I'll need, this has worked very well for me over the past several years, you don't make as much on the move, but the probability of success is much higher, so the expiration shouldn't be read in to beyond that.
I'm just going to use 3 charts...
The volume on the downside is reasonable, it's the highest in months and my reasons (market makers caught at a loss) go hand in hand with this volume. As you know, I'm a big fan of candlekstick reversals on increasing volume, the second batch of very high volume we saw was a "tweezer Bottom" / support with two hammer-liek candles so I like that a lot as near term oversold / short term selling climax.
As I said above, today's price action looks a lot like a max-pain pin and AAPL is probably one of the most heavily traded weekly options.
The 1 min chart is positive and especially t the candlestick reversal signal. The 2 and 3 min are as well.
What is usually important to me for short term trades is that the 5 min chart is in line with the trade and this one is positive, both at the candlestick reversal signal and on a leading basis.
All in all,
I think this is a worthwhile speculative trade today, where as I didn't yesterday.
No comments:
Post a Comment