So far this is just about exactly what was described Friday in the week ahead for very early in the week price strength or a bounce back. The divegrence that has been developing since about the afternoon has seen price break the downtrend line and start moving sideways, the divergences are extremely weak, the best looking by far is the IWM, my SRTY (long) is continuing to just rack up the points on the portfolio's equity line which is why I wanted to keep that position even in the face of a near certain bounce in early August, although I did cut back other shorts like FAZ long which I recently added almost all of it back. I don't see anything on the upside coming from this current divegrence beyond what was published in Friday's Week Ahead, there's no sleeper divergence here.
This is about the extent of the SPY positive today on a 3 min chart.
For comparison, the QQQ 5 min vs.
The IWM 5 min, so as we saw earlier, the IWM continues to look the best for a counter trend / Fade bounce position, although highly speculative.
HYG is really losing its ability to add any support, I thought this would happen going all the way back to the previous Friday's week ahead post in which I suspected HYG, as it has since Aug. 1, would break down first and lead the ,market, it looks like it will.
The intraday TICK at least has a trend. There was a +1000 poke above and then some nastier -1400 readings, for an early heads up on a change in direction, draw the channel trendlines around the NYSE intraday TICK and look for a break above the channel.
The SPY custom TICK looks similar.
And this is the 5 min / 50-bar IWM, a cross above should send IWM higher. I may even look in to a weekly call option as a speculative fade trade only, hit and run.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
-
Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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