Trade Idea / Trade Set-Up (long Term) PCLN

This one is a struggle for me because it's relative weakness through the entire month of August was opposite the broad market. It's also a long term top and has great potential downside. I don't have great reasons to believe it will bounce , although it has shown that it can move independently from the market, but in the context of weakness. PArt of me says, "Take it here, set a wider stop and put it away, you'll be happy you did" and the other part says, "Wait for a better entry with lower risk", the issue for me is determining whether the first thought is greed motivated (entering a trade or chasing a trade is usually greed motivation, but on the other hand it's relative weakness is an objective point) and of course the second perspective is the one I'd usually take based on, "There are tons of trades out there, wait for the ones that come to you rather than chasing a sub-par entry".

In any case, that's why this is posted as both a trade idea and a trade set-up.

 There are a number of indicators showing divergences at the Feb/MArch top which has not been surpassed showing broad relative weakness vs. the market on the year and there's another stronger divegrence in numerous indicators at the May/June top vs the higher August top.

 As for the Trend Channel, the last "reasonable" trend that could be followed started late 2012, through 2013 and stopped out in 2014 at the red arrow. The trend since then has to be characterized as lateral and while we may get a better entry by several percent, I feel comfortable saying the trend here is dead and the next significant trend will be to the downside. How you see this position is largely a matter of perspective, timeframes, risk tolerance, patience. I think either way you go (wait for a possible better entry or enter here), a year from now you are happy with the result.

 On a daily chart I've drawn this in (in no small part due to volume analysis) as a sloping H&S top.

The orange arrow shows a gap down on high volume, typically a short term capitulation even in which the asset can bounce from. However gaps are starting to make a comeback, they have always been excellent indications of support, resistance, breakaway moves, exhaustion moves, etc, but over the last several years nearly every gap has been filled I think that is largely a function of the F_E_D support and HFT's taking advantage of that support which is obviously being removed from the market,  I do hope that gaps fall back to their historical usage. 

The yellow arrow is a decline in the downside ROC which after such a high volume gap, does look a bit more like PCLN may try to bounce.

Also note the divergence in RSI as seen on earlier charts above .

 This is PCLN vs the SPY (red) at the August base for the market, note PCLN moved almost exactly opposite the broad market, topping at the time the market was basing and falling while the market was rallying.

 Here's a closer look at the gap area and the drop off in the downside momentum or ROC. This could easily form a decent short term base in the area and bounce, I don't think it would be significant if you are viewing the position from the longer term charts above, but again it depends on whether you really want the trade or you are holding out for the best trades that come to you on your terms.

 The multi-day 3C chart, some of the strongest signals we  get, shows clearly where the top formation saw severe distribution, it's little wonder PCLN never made a higher high through 2014.

*Also note how close PCLN is to breaking below the neckline, this is not my ideal spot for a short entry, but it is telling us something about the character/weakness of PCLN.

 The 4 hour chart looks as you'd expect considering the daily chart breakdown in the same area.

The 60 min chart is BEAUTIFUL as it confirms the upside move until the topping area and distribution, these are the charts I love as they are showing confirmation for a trend we know existed and falling apart where the trend ended and a top formation began.

Short term I don't have good evidence for a 3C inspired bounce, I'll continue to watch for one, but I'll be setting price alerts at levels from here to 1250-1275 just in case.