Friday, October 3, 2014

A.M. Update

It's a rough morning after a 7 hour drive last night and getting about an hour of sleep so hang in there with me as I get up to speed (connection problems and everything else this a.m.).

Futures were up overnight, presumably or at least in part due to worse than expected European Services or non-Manufacturing PMI's with only Russia and Germany beating, however Germany missed on the all important manufacturing earlier this week as Germany is the manufacturing dynamo and growth engine of the EU.

So it seems bad news is good news , either that or the op-ex pin was higher, but either way, all of our recent data has pointed to higher prices in the near term which is why some of the leveraged core short positions were flopped over to long late Wednesday.

On the Non-Farm Payrolls, we have good news is good news as the 248k beat over consensus of 215k and above Augusts's revised +180k (up from 142k), which breaks the +200k addition streak, but has now created the longest job growth streak in the US's history since tracked. The unemployment rate dropped from 6.1 to 5.9.   F_E_D... steady as she goes, QE will end this month.

However the F_E_D whisperer (not my creation, but a great name) from the WSJ warns not to get too giddy about the jobs beat as it is a F_E_D net negative, earlier rate hikes perhaps?

In any case I'm interested in what the market does and thus far here's what we have...

There was a bit of an MSI short squeeze, nothing impressive enough to capture.

 While the SPY, DIA and QQQ's 1 min intraday chart is trying to catch up to confirm the gap up,  because late yesterday we had negative divergences in to the close in the 1-3 min range suggesting a little more base building before we move too far north on the bounce.

However, this 5 min positive is still the bottom line, this is still the sponsor of the bounce and it still looks great, even though the bottom is very "V" shaped, but we'll be seeing more of that as downtrends continue like the IWM's and bearish trend counter trend bounces will be sharper like this so we'll have to get use to seeing this.

 DIA trying to catch up as well, but the bottom line is this 10 min positive (note the prior negative,nearly perfect forecasting).

 QQQ 2 min shows the negative afternoon divergence from yesterday.

QQQ 1 min shows the market trying to confirm the gap up...

And the QQQ 15 min leading positive divergence is still the bottom line or the most important chart for the bounce itself regardless of intraday trade.

 The IWM 5 min and the IWM is the only average that seems to not be trying to confirm the gap up this morning.

 Here's the 2 min negative from yesterday

And the 1 min chart not trying.

Since capturing these, all averages EXCEPT the IWM, have confirmed the gap up on a 1 min timeframe, we'll see what happens , if they can get to 2 min, if so, then our base building is probably done and we continue to bounce from here.

Is anyone glad we closed FXP yesterday?

I'll be adding some additional small updates as I catch up and find new indications that are of use to us in either entering the long trade if you haven't already or managing it, depending on what those 2 min charts do now and the IWM of course.


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