Early Indications

As was posted in the A.M. Update as well as throughout yesterday and in the Daily Wrap, I still believe the very short term risk is on the downside and while not overwhelmingly strong, the divergences thus far agree as they continue where they left off at the close yesterday.

This morning's A.m. Update as well as last night's look at the futures showed the risk to be on the downside with stronger 5 min negative divergences this morning and from the overnight session, so far price is fulfilling those divergences and the positive shorter term divergence in the $USD is seeing some price upside in $USD which is already weighing on GDX and it looks like GLD is to follow shortly, I may take some action with regard to the other half of the swing position set up that was half UGLD and half NUGT, treated as 1 single position because of their close correlation (I closed NUGT yesterday near the close).

 Our custom SPX/RUT Ratio showing a longer term August cycle and the confirmation/non-confrmation in the indicator, still calling for a head fake move below last week's lows or perhaps even a new low if we don't get positive divergences on the move below last week's lows which I still suspect we will.

A closer view with last week's lows, again the indicator called out a failure at the top of the move and is still calling for lower prices which would be essential in building a sustainable base, unlike yesterday's move off a shallow, sharp "V" base. This would be the head fake move suggested last Friday in any potential base.

And short term the indicator shows a failure at the highs from yesterday's move and was calling for lower prices which have already begun.

SPY 1 min negative

SPY 2 min, not huge divergences, but parabolic moves tend to move on emotion, not solid divergences.

DIA 3 min negative so this has made it out further than most averages with the current negative.

 IWM 2 min leading negative

 QQQ 2 min leading negative

And this morning's TICK has obviously deteriorated significantly more since the close.

As well as the TICK trend.

With those 5 min negative Index futures, I continue to see the risk on the downside as we did yesterday.