GLD and GDX (gold and gold miners) have diverged today (+.41% vs -2.22%) which is not normal for them. I can see how $USD weakness recently (since opening trade in futures for the new week, Sunday) played a big part in gold's advance yesterday, I also think a head fake move is in the mix.
I can't find what caused GDX to be knocked down today other than a 1 min negative divegrence that is in the GDX chart as well as the leveraged derivative ETF's, if I had to guess, I'd say it was for accumulation purposes so I wouldn't be opposed to owning or buying GDX or the 3x long ETF, NUGT here. As for GLD, I suspect it may consolidate a little, but if you like it, I wouldn't fret about micro-management, I'd just take it. In fact the current UGLD and NUGT positions (long) will be left open, they are already at full size.
First,
Gold Futures...
The 60 min chart overall looks good and the dip to the far right looks like a stop-run/head fake move which we often see before an upside reversal (in this case).
The 15 min chart has a white arrow marking the start of trade for the new week, there's a slight negative divegrence, this is why I said perhaps a consolidation, I'm not too worried about it.
This is the $USDX and note the same white arrow marking the start of trade in futures for the week, as the $USD fell, gold jumped.
Intraday 1 min, gold futures look like they'll come down a bit, perhaps re-correlate or meet in the middle with GDX, but again, for a longer term position, I wouldn't be too concerned with it.
This is GLD's downtrend and turn to lateral where support was formed and what I believe to be a stop run under support on volume which looks a lot like a reversal process that is just about complete.
The 60 min chart looks good, but even better, when zoomed out it is leading positive in a huge way like GDX's 30 and 60 min charts and DUST has the same except as the inverse, it's a huge leading negative divegrence so there's good confirmation among multiple assets in multiple timeframes.
This is the GLD 5 min chart where the head fake move would be, volume was up, there's a strong positive divegrence.
And 3 min intraday it looks fine...
Only on the 1 min, like gold futures , is there a slight negative divegrence, so again, I wouldn't be too concerned with it.
GDX's 30 and 60 min charts are like GLD's they are in a huge leading positive position, you'll see the opposite on the DUST chart below.
GDX 15 min looks good
GDX 10 min looks great...
As does the 5 min, note there's no negative divegrence for today's move down, but there is a positive divegrence on today's price action which is why I think it is being accumulated.
And the GDX 1 min chart looks great, but if you zoom in to intraday ...
You see a "steering" divergence, not serious distribution, just enough to steer price, usually to fill an order, this is the only place I can find a reason for GDX's decline here.
NUGT, the 3x long of GDX looks great here on the 1 mi and appears to hae accumulated today's pullback.
And JNUG (3x long Junior Gold miners) not only shows the steering divergence, but a strong leading positive divergence on today's pullback.
This is the 3x short GDX ETF, DUST, note the deep leading negative divegrence, this is the mirror opposite of GDX's 30 and 60 min charts as well as gold's.
DUST 15 min is leading negative so it looks like GDX/NUGT are preparing for a move higher.
The 5 min DUST is negative
And the 1 min DUST is the mirror opposite of GDX and NUGT.
I think that's good correlation in multiple timeframes.
I'd take NUGT or GDX long here.
No comments:
Post a Comment