Tuesday, October 28, 2014

MCP Update

MCP is getting interesting in the area and active, the price pattern looks like a small Cup and Handle, we don't see these bullish price formations much anymore for whatever reason, but this is a "textbook" version from Investopedia.

 Cup and Handle, the volume is lighter on the handle consolidation which is similar to a bull flag, they consolidate against the preceding trend until a break out to the upside.

This would be a fairly small C&H vs. most of the textbook patterns that use to be everywhere several decades ago.

 This is the Daily X-Over Screen, because of the choppiness in a lot of assets of most of 2014, we've had to use a lot of 60 min charts here, a daily is a much stronger signal. The sell/short signal is confirmed at the 3 red boxes on the price moving averages, the custom indicator (yellow) with its moving average and Wilder's RSI at the bottom. We have 2 of 3 long right now and the 3rd, the custom indicator in the middle window is a hair from crossing over to a full buy signal.

The preceding downtrend before MCP started moving laterally was stopped out in the Trend Channel

 As far as long term, primary trend long positions, there are only a few that look very interesting to me, MCP has been one of them. A base formation of a year or more is not uncommon, before the big home builders run in to 2005, they were making bases similar to this for about a year and a half right in to the 2000 Tech Bubble implosion.

This is a 5-day leading positive divegrence, a very strong, long term chart.

 Intraday, the long 2 hour chart is positive and has seen a recent uptick in its divergence at this flat area.

The 15 min chart, with as much history as I can fit on the chart is showing the same trend with a sharper uptick in the same area, although being a shorter term chart the divegrence should look sharper as it does.

 in to the handle area.
Also with as much history as I can fit, the 5 min chart is showing the same trend,  note small negative divegrence right at Cup resistance that forms the handle and  the stronger leading positive divegrence 

Intraday charts also look good.

For now I'm going to continue to hold MCP long, as far as a new position or a potential call position, I'd like to wait and see if this is a true C&H bottom which would see a breakout on higher volume above the flag-like handle consolidation.

All in all, it's looking interesting.


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