Last night I mentioned the San-Fran F_E_D's president talking about the possibility of more QE, QE4 if in fact the market data suggested it. I dismissed this out of hand right away as a Draghi jaw-boning gimmick in which he has no intention of doing anything, but tlks big to manipulate the Euro.
We know from last week's minutes that the F_E_D is concerned about the $USD's strength on the global economy, I suspect that's what those noises from the San Fran F_E_D were about yesterday. Interestingly, overnight the outgoing Chief economist of the Bank of Japan said it may be time to start looking at exiting QE, this would create a strong Yen.
Take a look at the $USD weakness this morning on the back of Yen strength...
The 1 min Yen chart this morning...
The 1 min $USDX chart this morning.
I've seen recent weakness in the $USd prompting me to believe that it was going to not only help crude, but US stocks and other dollar denominated assets as well.
This is the 5 min #USDX with a negative divegrence calling for a near term drop in the $USD.
And the bigger picture 60 min $USDX negative divegrence.
As for oil, it looks like it benefitted from the drop this morning in the $USDX...
Crude Futures (Brent).
It's hard to say if stocks have too at this early stage in the morning session, but it appears they are finding footing.
So did the BOJ and F_E_D just coordinate to knock the dollar lower on Yen strength and could that have something to do with yesterday's peak in order cancellations that some believe is a secret F_E_D buy signal?
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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