Thursday, October 23, 2014

Trade Idea: (Swing+) IBB NASDAQ Biotech Short / BIS Long

I'm going to post the charts for this one quickly and enter a half size trading position because of a range and I want to see how it reacts around that range, otherwise it's a perfect example of head fake moves and specifically a Crazy Ivan move around the range. The actual position I'm looking at2x short NASDAQ Biotech Index) and again, at a half size position for now.



 Note the range in yellow. It's a bit difficult with so much to make out the 3C negative divegrence in the range that leads price lower and below the range, these are the kind of moves that are often momentum drivers for a breakout to the upside that IBB couldn't do on its own inside the range without first drawing in shorts and using a squeeze to create momentum for an upside breakout where institutional money can dump their positions. Financials did the EXACT same thing (XLF).

After the failed breakdown (Remember failed moves lead to fast reversals), the shorts who chased it lower , which is not hard to imagine after Yellen singled out Biotechs as being overvalued, become the creators of momentum as they are squeezed sending prices higher and eventually drawing in longs on a technical breakout above the range, allowing smart money to do what they could not do inside the range, distribute at higher prices without buying more to drive it higher which is the opposite of what they want to do (they want to sell).


 The intraday timing timeframes like 1 min are very clear, I don't have to draw anything.

 Look how the 5 min institutional timeframe reacts once above the range,a deep leading negative divegrence.

And the 10 min , which is why I'm not convinced about this as a longer term short yet and why I'm okay with a half size position until these intermediate 10-15 min charts become more clear.

No comments: