Thursday, November 6, 2014

Intraday Update: HYG's Goose giving out, Maybe 30 year as well / Financials/ FAZ

Lets just get to the charts,

 HYG's intraday move is seeing fast deterioration and no longer leading.

There's migration of the same HYG intraday divergence moving to longer charts so I suspect this short term move to provide intraday support via HYG as there's no strong or larger divegrence in HYG other than negatives,  will fail shortly and start or continue leading down.

HYG is red vs the SPY (green) intraday is flat here. Also note the odd volume spike in SPY just after 1 p.m.

TLT started showing a positive 1 min and odd 60 min divergence yesterday (60 min is older than just yesterday). As I said yesterday, I wouldn't go buying TLT on this, but it's notable.

As for 30 year rates vs the SPX (green), even intraday they control the wiggles, but they look to be starting to deteriorate more as TLT is starting to find a toehold- (20+ year Treasury bond fund).

 The TLT pair of divergences is a bit strange on very short and very long charts, but mucky in the middle so I checked actual 30 year treasury futures and they show the same exact thing, 5 min 30 year T futures are positive and so are the 60 min...

60 min went negative and then declined, now with a large positive along the same lines as the TLT 60 min in a flat area that looks like a reversal process as it has lost downside momentum .

The SPY is negative now intraday, after being in line and then a relative positive at the morning lows on 30 year yield leading...

And the defined, sharper directional moves in TICK from earlier today (which are normal, just look sharp comparatively to the readings now...
Have gone absolutely flat/range bound.

Thus far one of my favorite looking short assets is Financials, not because of their under-perfomance, because of their divergences.

 XLF intraday, but more impressively...

 XLF trend from confirmation in sreen to a near straight leading negative,  this is why from the very start I described this "Sentiment Changing" rally as a means to an end, the rally itself being the means and the XLF chart above being the end.

As I expected before the rally even started, it would end with new lows being made for the market averages.

My personal trade of choice for Financials short is FAZ (long) , 3x short Financials
 As shown yesterday like several other assets there was no divergence that made it out as far as the 30 and 60 min charts in several assets, I showed the SPY as being one, I believe the Q's were another. This shows the same and Im used it in yesterday's post as an example of how many assets look just like this in inverse ETFs. The ONLY divergence that was strong enough to make it to the 30 and 60 min FAZ charts is this positive. The yellow arrows represent a reversal process, as the "V" reversal event seen in SPY, QQQ and DIA (not IWM) is pretty rare.


 Even on a 10 min chart FAZ was in line and not negative at the top, again the only divegrence making it this far to intermediate timeframes is a positive and quite large, in line with the size of the 30 and 60 min.

The 5 min FAZ positive

And 3 min which I use as a timing indication when we are in a reversal process or close, the yellow highlight is what I'd consider to be the reversal process area.

And the 2 min acting very well as prices flatten out, also a near term timing timeframe.

No comments: