Silver Update

Silver has been one of my least favorite assets to analyze and to trade, largely because of huge manipulation of the precious metal (as more and more stories are being confirmed on a near weekly basis of gold and silver price manipulation), however if we are following the underlying money flows, manipulation or not, as long as there;s a strong signal we can be on the right side of the trade.

It has been a long time since I've even covered silver, but I think this is one of those moments in which something is happening and it's broad enough that it can't be ignored. I would not call Silver a long trade right now, but if things keep developing as they have been, it may be in a very short period of time.

 This was the period of JPM's greatest intervention and Silver manipulation run by Blythe Masters as JPM inherited a large silver short when they absorbed Bear Stearns.

Recently after a range formed there was a high volume break (stops hit) in SLV, I suspect this is the start of a change in not only character, but trend for Silver broadly.

Silver Futures...

 This is a day chart during the same period, since about July, note the change in character from the previous 3C downside confirmation

The negative at the July pivot is clear, here the change in character since confirmation is less clear, but it's there to a lesser degree.

 The more detailed 60 min chart shows the period since price moved below that range on large volume with a positive divegrence through the entire episode of stop runs.

The DeMark inspired buy/sell indicator shows previous sell signals and buy signals, although I'd like to see a little more improvement before calling this a high probability, low risk trade. I would definitely call it a probability that silver moves to the upside, but we need a bit more than that.

 The daily Trend Channel has held the entire trend down including the consolidation just before prices slipped below support and triggered huge volume in stops/sell/short orders.

The current stop on a daily close is right at $15.50, but it will continue to move lower hour by hour.

 SLV 30 min should show a clear trend from distribution to confirmation to accumulation.

The 15 min chart is the same, I don't think you even need annotations on the chart.

Confirming assets showing the same trends....

 This is PSLV 60 min showing the same distribution at the July pivot and in line or 3C price/trend confirmation at the green arrow before a change in character with a sharp leading positive 60 min divergence, they rarely move this sharply on this long of a timeframe. I suspect a lot of volume was created on the move below the range and it was accumulated in large size.

 AGQ 2x long silver shows the same confirmation at the green arrows, distribution at the July pivot, confirmation on the downtrend and a change in character with a large relative positive divegrence.

 GPL, Great Panther Silver also shows the same trend, except this is a lot sharper as an individual company rather than an ETF, I may be looking at the companies more than ETF's it depends on how much stronger their signals are vs the leverage of some of the ETFs.

This is FSM, Fortuna Silver mines again showing the same trend, but with a stronger set of signals earlier, it seems the miners may be leading as they have recently been doing with gold, an old correlation from before QE.

SIVR Silver Trust again with the same trend story and recent change in character.

SLW's trend...

Like I said, there's definitely something going on here and probabilities are there for a move up in silver, there's tons of confirmation via multiple assets, I'd like to see more confirmation in multiple timeframes and then I think we have a high probability, low risk trade.