MCP Update

Today is one of those days in which MCP makes a move and I think, "Perhaps there is more to this as I have suspected".

In any case, this is a long, sorted story of a company that needed financing, got it, has some looks like there's more to the story and it's the only long I personally hold right now. On many occasions I have nearly sold it to put my resources to best use in whichever asset I feel is going to generate the best return, but there has been something about the way MCP acts with what I call, "Glimpses" ever now and then, they are fleeting, often you have to see them as they happen. It's glimpses such as these that first told us that the F_E_D was looking for a way out of QE on the very day they announced QE3 and the market seemed to pick up on it too because the knee jerk lasted about 2 hours before a question was asked that made it seem the F_E_D was already looking for an exit from extraordinary accommodation, I remember the press conference with Bernanke, I don't remember the exact question, but the gist of it and I remember the exact time, 2:24 p.m. on September 13th, 2012 when the market topped on the knee jerk move upon Bernanke answering that question, it made a slight intraday move higher the next day and then traded down over -8% the next 3 months and didn't see that price level again until the new year UPON THE RELEASE OF QE3!

The few times we have found F_O_M_C leaks that were extremely obvious, it was a glimpse that you would have never found looking back on a chart unless you saw it at the time it occurred in the context of the market at that moment.

In any case, MCP reminds me of that now.

 This break at the yellow arrow triipped up a lot of stops. While not a very big move below support, traders tend to put their stops right at EXACT support/resistance which is a mistake as support and resistance are created via emotional constructs and are much more appropriately viewed as areas rather than specific points, although they do react like specific points because of human Mass Psychology, kind of the same reason retailers never sell anything for $10.00, but use $9.99 instead, the human mind gravitates toward whole numbers, obvious areas and typically , exact support/resistance levels which makes them easy to run based on Mass Psychology alone, forget about NASDAQ's TotalView or NYSE's OpenBook, ArcaBook, etc. that let you see the depth of the market, which are available to retail, Institutional view of the orders on the books and that of market makers and specialists are vastly superior. The point is, even without these sources of the depth of a market, Mass Psychology alone tells you where the orders are stacked up as you see them hit at the yellow arrow and volume swell.

However look at today's 10+% move and the volume thus far which I'm not comparing to Wednesday's half day, but rather Tuesday's full day and today in which even fewer carbon based traders are at their desks, volume is increasing.

 I still believe something longer term is going on in MCP as this 2 hour chart seems to continue to suggest.

If we go by the concept of "Wherever you first see a 3C divegrence, price will surpass that area, just on this year's trade, that would suggest a move well above $6.00.

 The 5 min chart has more detail and interestingly has been increasing in its leading positive divegrence since that move below support, which has the smell of big accumulation at low prices,  this is similar to what I saw during the 2000 Tech Bubble explosion when Home Builders were showing clear accumulation, years in advance of the next bull market led by Home Builders and Consumer Spending based on the rising equity of people's homes.

 Near term here's what the 2 min chart looks like.

And the 1 min chart shows a slight pullback from a recent previous intraday high and the accumulation of the pullback leading to today's move.

The DAILY Trend Channel has a stop out of the down-trend at >$.86, which means ABOVE $.86 on the close. This would show a significant change of character suggesting the trend is about to change.

The recent high that we pulled back from, nearly broke above the Trend Channel we are even closer now.

Also the 10-22-day moving averages have defined resistance on the upside, so I'd set alerts for > $.86 as well as a move above the 22-day moving average.