Quick Market Update

As mentioned yesterday, the market "looks" like it's being pinned in place, pretty much lateral especially compared to last Wednesday, Thursday and Friday on the F_O_M_C knee jerk.

TICK action today has not exceeded + or - 750 all day thus far.

HYG has broken lower with negative divergences in 1 through 10 min timeframes.

SPY 1 min is in line intraday, but from 2 min it is leading negative, again the look of a thin facade of market strength or at least keeping prices in the area until traders return, no large fund wants to see an emergency cancellation of their extended holiday vacation on events in the market, but clearly the ROC has changed as have the 3C charts.

The Q's are more negative overall as they have been for the week and the IWM is also negative in the short term timeframes we need to turn. I believe we are in the area of the end of the Crazy Ivan upside move after the previous week's downside move which was the momentum set up for the Crazy Ivan just as this move is the momentum set up for the reversal (a bear trap first and a bull trap presently).

The Index futures are now showing the 5 min charts negative, which was what I was waiting on this week, from this point forward, I'd call the market very unpredictable and other than trying to keep it in place as to not have to call back trading staff to deal with a volatile break in the markets, I'd say we are at the area in which virtually any point could send the market lower quickly as failed moves have extremely fast momentum, just as did the failed move last Monday/Tuesday below the IWM's range leading to the strongest momentum move of the entire cycle Wednesday on a short squeeze of the every same shorts who entered Monday and Tuesday. Again the larger point is the 5 min chart I had been waiting on as it is the one chart that must be divergence for me to consider any trade long or short, is now negative as seen yesterday along with the longer charts from 7 min out to monthly.

Transports underlying trade, one of the strongest performers even with higher oil prices yesterday (which tells us this had nothing to do with oil, but the larger head fake concept as transports are momentum names) is clearly failing them

 shorter term transports 2 min trend since accumulation leading to the 17th (F_O_M_C)

However this was never a move with the support price seemed to indicate it had, and rather a confirmed head fake move as the 10 min chart shows on the move with a stronger (because of increased volatility and that being a sign of a transition area) negative divegrence than the previous negatives sending it lower.

The Dow which has been an out-performer with its magnetic psychological move to $18k is also showing the same.

 It has largely been the short term charts we have been looking for a change in,  the timing or tactical charts like this DIA 1 min which a VERY clear divergence to push to $18k (DOW) and a deep negative divegrence since as 18k should have brought in longs on limit./confirmation orders, strengthening the bull trap which starts to trigger the further we drop below $18k.

 The intermediate 5 min chart with accumulation in to the 17th and a clear reversal and distribution in 3C.

However the longer term chart is where probabilities for shorter term resolution of moves like this reside, look at the divegrence in the 60 min DIA from point "A" to point "B". I don't think I need to draw the arrow showing the heavy distribution on the most recent move which is in addition to prior distribution at the previous pivot high.

 The SPY's 1 min intraday in line which started with a positive divegrence on yesterday's closing sell-off is a thin veneer concealing what's going on deeper in underlying trade.

 Even with the large transaction with 1174 trades in one second, 4 seconds before the market closed on the 18th, creating an illusory wall of bullishness, the 3 min chart reveals what is actually going on even in near term trade outside the thin veneer of the 1 min chart.

And as to the Crazy Ivan cycle (remember for simplicity's sake, I view the 2 head fakes of the Crazy Ivan as being the one below the IWM's 6 week range and the expected and forecasted one above as the 6 week range presented an easy head fake target and it already carries an 80+% probability even without such an obvious range of a head fake move before a reversal, the fact it was the IWM (widely watched) and that the range was so tight and so long (6 trading weeks) all just increased the probabilities of such an upside head fake move which is how our forecast started, not with actual objective evidence, but from our concepts and this one based in mass psychology of the market, then divergences like the white positive gave us the evidence to back up the theory and the current negative on a strong 15 min chart back up the rest of the Crazy Ivan (second head fake) forecast.

The first move in the Crazy Ivan was a momentum creating short squeeze trap, the real move was the head fake above the range,  now that is completed and confirmed as a head fake move as there's no confirmation, certainly no positive divegrence, but the expected distribution, the move is now complete and has accomplished the goals of setting up a bull trap. Remember it was just the week prior that the market saw the worst Dw performance in 3 years, that wasn't just random.

The Q's are probably the worst looking as far as underlying trade as shown the last 3 days.

 Intraday 1 min also accumulated at the closing lows and seeing intraday distribution today, probably having more to do with closing positions before the holiday, but...

 Since the accumulation below the range to the left, I don't think I need to point out the negative divegrence above the range.

As for the longer term trend which told us the probabilities of the resolution of this move before it even started and now confirm, I have just highlighted the divergence areas both positive and negative, you should be able to pick out the DIVERGENCES in 3C, and if you can't follow the direction of price and 3C at each area, it is important you can do this. However the most important point is the recent move and the lack of 3C support, in fact...WHAT KIND OF DIVERGENCE IS THIS?

And the IWM...

 The 1 min chart has been drifting with the IWM with a slight negative bias, but not as important as...

 IWM 3 min is pretty clear about what has happened since crossing above the range.

 The 5 min chart and remember to see the last IWM chart below of the range and remember the dates and these divergences.

This 60 min IWM chart shows the range and why it was so appealing with somewhere between -.10 and -.38% movement over 6 trading weeks, Note the head fake below and then above, a Crazy Ivan, but more importantly look at the 60 min divegrence, you can even pick out the positive below the range, but the position now relative to the position of 3C and price at the start of the range is all you really need to know about what's happening here.

Quickly the Index futures.

 While the 1 min ES is nearly perfectly in line, NQ and TF are showing something else going on.

NQ with a very sharp negative recently although negative all day.

TF doesn't need any commentary.

Remember it has been the short term charts, the timing charts we have been waiting on for signals.

The ES 5 min chart which has had the best 3C relative performance is finally breaking and sharply.

The 7 min charts like NQ above are already in position. What do I always say about these flat ranges and their apparent "Dull" looking trade? Beware of quiet markets, this is where the strongest underlying action is. 

"It's like the kids in the room next door being a little too quiet, you know they are up to something" and 3C shows that something quite clearly.

ES 15 min chart and as mentioned, from here we have a full house out to monthly charts, it was just the 5 min charts needed and they are now in position, thus the reason I say this move to the downside could come literally at any moment.

I'll try to add a few more charts and I'm finishing up UNG/UGAZ.