Another Update

My appologies, this is why I have been keeping intraday updates short and by themselves, they just move too quickly to look at anything much broader, but at least you get to see the process.

So since the last 2 updates with price moving as anticipated, we have some new and very different tone in intraday charts. I'm not saying at this point whether I believe they are part of a larger negative move lower,  however with treasuries acting the way they are today and yields pressuring the market lower, it only makes sense that we are seeing downside in the market intraday being the op-ex max pain pin is usually pulled around 2 p.m. 

With the pin no longer a concern, I suspect yields and their gravitational pull are likely the main influence of intraday activity since the last update and price move.

Here are the charts, intraday they have seen some pretty significant deterioration which if nothing else should tell you how important the max-pain op-ex pin is, how much money they stand to gain by causing as many contracts as possible to expire worthless and then how the market can take on a totally different tone once the pin is over.

I absolutely prefer when all of the averages and Index futures are confirming each other, but as you may recall last Friday in our The Week Ahead post, this wasn't the case, the IWM had clearly better looking 3C charts which led not only to the Monday forecast which was correct, but the IWM outperformance in the first part of the week, which was as correct as it could be. We have a little of that, but these are still very short term intraday charts and they are starting to take up too much time (I just know several of you are trading intraday) so this will probably be the last intraday update unless something is screaming on the charts.

 SPY is one that has a better looking relative chart, still a 1 min, the a.m. lows and poisitive divegrence are clearly visible.

At the 3 min chart, we move to a more neutral tone intraday and keep going, at the stronger, more important 5 min chart below...

We are still very much in line with the negative trend we have sen in the SPY since last Friday.

This doesn't suggest any real strength/accumulation of lows in a meaningful way.

The Q's look a bit worse intraday, at two relative areas of price highs today that are nearly identical, 3C is clearly lower at the second, distribution.

And since yesterday's positive divegrence and bounce as we expected after morning weakness, we are seeing a continuation of the negative divegrence from late yesterday as the Q's seems to be hitting resistance of some kind.

 QQQ 2 min

The IWM looks to be closer to in line intraday which is a downgrade to earlier action, it actually as a slight leading negative component if you look at the two intraday lows at the same relative area and where 3C is at the same two areas.

 However on a stronger 2 min chart, there hasn't been as much migration of the 1 min's more negative tone, at least not yet, but there is some.

Again, near term the IWM has a better looking set of underlying charts which would suggest near term better relative performance.

As always, the NYSE TICK (intraday) is a great early warning to an intraday trend change, just draw the channels and look for the breaks