Thursday, February 12, 2015

A.M. Update

The market seems to have gone psycho since CNBC's false rumor yesterday of a Greek agreement...
 First sending the market ripping higher, by last night it had dropped and erased the gains, then overnight a bevy of events took place, not the least of which included the Swiss Riksbank (Central Bank) hitting the market with a surprise rate cut of 10 bps to NIRP and announcing $10bn SEK in QE (Government bonds) to offset a deflationary spiral.

Asia and Europe are strongly green, part of European strength coming on the heels of Putin's statement that there will be a Ukraine cease-fire starting Sunday Feb. 15th.

FX markets have been volatile and all over the place with the SEK weakening aggressively on the Swiss QE, JPY strengthened on comments from the BOJ that additional easing may be counter-productive. GBP/USD was up while EUR/GBP hit 7 year lows  on comments from the BOE's Mark Carney that the market should expect rates to rise faster than currently anticipated.

The BOE also revised down their quarterly inflation report saying short term CPI will remain weak on weak oil, but should move to 2% within 2 years.

Of course as mentioned, USD/JPY broke below $1.20 on the BOJ thoughts that any more stimulus is counter productive.
Recently US Initial Claims missed at a gain of 24k to 304k as shale states like TX and PA report heavy lay-offs, this brought Index futures down a bit at 8:30 a.m. above.

And for today's volatility we have the EU leaders gathering in Brussels today, it's Tspiras' turn, expect more volatility on comments out of Brussels.

Oil as we expected has bounced higher off yesterday's reversal/doji low. Gold is up a bit, but still near 5 week pullback lows.

More to come...


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