Tuesday, February 24, 2015

And There it Goes-Quick Market Update

The market just made a pretty nasty dip and on some volume, particularly in the S&P with a TICK reading of -1440.

I'm still a bit concerned about the parabolic rise in TLT and the 1 min negative divergence, actually concerned is not the right word looking at the charts, I'd say I still think that TLT near term / intraday is in danger of a pullback, but not much else, the danger lies else where in the broader market looking at the rest of the charts.

 SPY breaks on the divegrence that has been forming all morning and on some significant volume.

Same with the IWM

And the Q's.

As mentioned above and last night, TLT's intraday 1 min chart is negative and this is a very parabolic move, I don't trust them and I expected a pullback in TLT, taking some pressure off the market for a short period, but I wouldn't call this concern, I just think the signal makes it a probability still.

However as near as the very next timeframe at 2 mins, there's no TLT negative divegrence and a perfect in line signal, thus the divergence on the 1 min chart is not very large and likely nothing more than an intraday move if it's not run over.

The really meaningful chart for TLT remains the basing/leading divergence on longer timeframes taken with the market's Igloo/Chimney formations and the divergences (negative) at the chimneys on timing timeframes.

TLT 10 min.

My own trade plan would be, "if" TLT's 1 min chart does in fact pull it back, the market should bounce a bit intraday, I'd say probabilities are in the 90% area that it's the same head fake that we have seen in the signals, thus I'd want to use that market bounce for shorting in to or entering puts so long as the continued negative divegrence in to any such bounce continues. I'll be looking more at specific assets as they should be giving strong trade set-up signals in this case, in other words, it is looking more and more like now is the time to start adding those positions.

Lets see what TLT does...

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