Friday, February 6, 2015

Early Update

I'm looking around this morning for a clear trend among the averages and Index futures, but none is to be found. While the talk is largely still about jobs, the price action seems to have moved toward the typical Friday op-ex pin, at least that's what I suspect.

Looking at Index futures as well as averages, there's no solid theme among the intraday 3C charts as of yet and there doesn't seem to be consensus on the jobs report, it looks to be more about the max-pain options expiration pin (now every Friday).

For example...
 ES has retraced most of the Jobs gains, but is vacillating now about at the mid point.

 NASDAQ futures (which interestingly had the worst signals yesterday, you may recall the strong, sudden and unexpected negatives in XLK/Tech and QQQ around thee 2 min mark.

NASDAQ 100 futures have retraced all of the jobs gains from pre-market and are trading lower .

While TF/Russell 2000 futures are doing their own thing.

It seems there's no consensus on jobs anymore and this is more about an op-ex max pain pin level, at least that would seem to make sense.

Gold as we have been expecting has taken a big hit this morning, of course that's easily blamed on $USD strength and jobs data, but this started long before the jobs data...

 Gold futures strong leading negative divegrence in the very early a.m. hours/overnight.

Right in line with our GLD forecast of a pullback...
GLD 15 min negative divergence and the gap down this morning.

USO is up a bit this morning, but still very much in the consolidation zone, more through time than price with an apparent strengthening chart, we'll keep an eye on this one, but since the start and the +20% gains, there has been a solid positive divegrence suggesting quite a bit more gas in the tank, I expect USO to make additional gains, in fact as I said last night, while I don't view this as a trend reversal/bottom, I do think this counter trend rally has barely started.

Hopefully things will start to calm down and fall in to a trend as the volatile A.M. trade burns off.



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