Wednesday, February 4, 2015

Index Futures Update

As a part of the broader overall market update, I'm including Index Futures.

As of last night in the Daily Wrap... I ended the post as usual with a look at Index futures, this is what we saw as of last night around 7:30 p.m.

"Finally for tonight, Index Futures are not looking great on the intraday 1 min chart which has bled over to the 5 min chart, a lot of the damage was done after the close, but not in all cases."

This is material because the damage we saw last night on the intraday 1 min chart which was a strong enough divergence that it migrated to the much stronger 5 min chart, was more than likely a reflection of the overnight action to come, as you may recall this morning we gapped down off an overnight decline that not even the PBoC's (People's Bank of China)  .5% RRR cut could overcome (see this morning's A.M. Update for additional information/charts).

Thus any migration from 5 min charts to longer chart in the intermediate timeframes like 7 min, 10 min, etc. is also material. While not every Index futures in every timeframe looks exactly alike, there's a theme to them and I chose the best Index future that represented the theme of that timeframe rather than 3 different charts for 7+ timeframes.

 Almost all intraday 1 min Index futures look like this, no discernible trend which is a big part of the reason we've had so few intraday updates, there hasn't been anything to update.

Also consider the lack of movement in the averages especially relative to yesterday or the day before and remember the internals, the S&P and Morningstar groups and the near term overbought condition developing that often ends with the next day close red, this may also be having some effect, along with oil and of course the energy sector underperforming relative to earlier this week.


 TF 5 min was a negative divegrence underway last night, it's still in the Index Futures and has spread to a longer 7 min chart.

 ES 7 min and the divergence is very sharp locally, pretty fast moving since last night's observations.

This has moved out further as you can see with the NQ 10 min chart above,  this is the visual definition of a divergence, 3C contradicting price.


 ES 15 min is showing the same kind of character.

As well as the trend in TF 30 min which may be of interest (as a trend).

And finally the ES 60 min chart, I didn't want to draw too much on an already crowded chart, but you can follow most of the divergences that I highlighted.

This is not a conclusion in itself, it's a piece of the puzzle, but thus far with the market averages deteriorating and Index futures doing the same, we can't ignore the charts.


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