UNG Breakout

Finally something different to talk about other than the very predictable Euro/Greek crisis which is best summarized by this cartoon I saw earlier this morning via Germany's TAZ,

I'll try to get to the real crux of the issue and perhaps it will be easier to understand while meeting after meeting has failed to produce even a single press release of some progress, they can't even get a draft of that out!

So UNG has broken out this morning, up +5.33%.

I hope a lot of you were able to catch this one. After our earlier Feb 10th stop run, our last update this Wednesday (Feb 18th), UNG Follow Up, said:

" On a 60 min chart, the shakeout would be below the yellow trendline which is also where the 60 min chart leads positive, in other words it looks like shares shaken out were accumulated....

Very short term, the 3 min chart is positive at the lows and in line since with some local resistance, all in all the probabilities lay with the 60 min chart, thus UNG should be able to break above local resistance"

The late fall/early winter season started unseasonably warm, however since we have obviously seen unseasonably cold  waves. In Florida it was in the 20's, I can't remember the last winter in which we had more than a couple of days at 50 and usually around 70-80.

So far everything looks pretty darn good. There's not much to update on the longer term charts since Wednesday, but the very short term charts are at confirmation or close and I have a couple of trending stops/Trend Channel for you.

 Here are the head fake/stop run moves mentioned in the last several updates. The main one was below $14, which volume makes obvious, then after setting support with a hammer, $13.50 was the next stop hit. As I said in the last update, the 3C charts show all of this head fake move under $14 as having been accumulated or bought on the cheap. Today's breakout is from an ascending (bullish) triangle-like pattern, not textbook, but the psychology is the same.

 3min confirmation...

For now, trade management is the name of the gam so we'll get this move in a Trend Channel now.

 The tighter 60 min Channel has a current stop around $14.40, I prefer to view that as on a closing basis. This stop will continue to lock in additional gains every hour. Initially a 60 min 22-bar expo moving average is "close" to the Trend Channel, but it can't do what the TC can do for long.

The larger view is that of a daily stop, now at the $13.85 area, this may be best applied after UNG gets more momentum under its wings.

So far so good, and very glad to see the move.