Friday, March 6, 2015

A.M. Update

Good Morning.

I suppose the question over at Goldman Sachs this morning is "How did we get the Employment numbers so wrong?"

Yesterday Goldman predicted a 200k or less print because of snow, but that hourly wages would rise.

The market consensus for this morning's jobs report was a gain of 235k, but the payrolls came in smashing everyone's expectations at 295k (prev. 239k). About those hourly wages, consensus expected a rise of .2, but it was only .1%. The unemployment rate dropped from 5.7 to 5.5 on consensus of 5.6, this is because of another drop in the labor participation rate.

In any case, the market as you probably know is not taking the print well, ES at last look after having been flat all night looks like this...

ES sold off and continues to sharply decline because this strong jobs number means it's all the more likely that the F_E_D hikes rates in June.

Bonds are sharply lower, gold is lower, oil moved slightly lower, but the USD is raging and the EUR/USD at last look was at 1.0884.

So we'll see where this goes after the initial knee jerk is done, it may keep heading straight down despite the op-ex Friday.

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