Early Update

As posted in the last post and Friday's Week Ahead, early a.m. strength looks like a run or gaming of retail orders (for those out there with a normal job who place orders before going to work or prepare them over the weekend or week night). The parabolic move of course is something I never trust, they tend to end as badly as they start.

I'd prefer to see a 50 bar m.a. on a 5 min chart to depict the reversal process intraday and I might (as a day trader/intraday lets call it) fade this move, but it may be too fast, here's the 50 on a 1 min chart, a 5 min would be great when you see the 50 turning down and price just crossing below as even a parabolic move has a proportional reversal process, much tighter of course.

Again, except the IWM, there's no confirmation and with a parabolic move, that sounds about right.

 50 bar 1 min, I'd prefer a reversal on a 50-bar 5 min, maybe we get that, if we do I'll follow this up with a fade trade opportunity.

As for the Week Ahead  early Monday strength and confirmation...

 Here's the SPY's late Friday divergence (1 min.) and the failure to confirm this morning, not as bad as some others ...

Like the Q's, that's intraday failure to confirm, this is why I'd consider a fade trade, fading the early strength if we could just get to a 5 min chart.

 DIA has the worst non confirmation...

And the IWM so far does have confirmation and also looked the best late Friday, but usually if 3 go down, the 4th is going to draft them.

I'll update again if I see a lower risk fade trade.