A.M. Update

Good Morning,

As pointed out last night, the same overnight strength that developed in futures Monday night/Tuesday morning and had the Index Futures' charts in disarray near term yesterday, could just as easily change overnight , especially with the Index futures already negative in to the overnight session

From last night's Daily Wrap...

"The most current one minute index futures right now are negative like ES above. They may once again gain strength with this negative divergence overnight as they did with yesterday's positive divergence and that may answer our question near-term. "

This is what not only 1 min Index futures did overnight (which kicked the night off ugly as the chart above from last night's post shows), but the migration through multiple timeframes which have nearly reached the 15 min chart. Short term gyrations aside, there has been very serious damage done to the market this year, far beyond what I had already though was very serious prior to this year.

 Forget about the horrendous GDP print for now, just look at 3C overnight at flat ES prices on this 1 min ES chart, just continued to drop lower...

This migrated to longer charts.

 As I said last night, the positive divergence on this 5 min chart is "in the past" from yesterday morning, but the chart needs to go negative" as well as the 7, 10 and 15 min charts. That process also got under way last night.

 ES 7 min

ES 10 min which was one of the "mixed" charts in the timeframes.

And ES 15 min clearly plunging to a leading negative low, the other averages are some version of this.

As to the shocking +0.2% GDP print, it seems the Atlanta F_E_D's GDP real time forecasting, GDP-Now, is quite accurate with a forecast on +0.1% considering the +0.2% print was a miss of consensus of +1%.

Apparently the market has , for now, taken bad news as bad news.

The question is whether the F_O_M_C sees this as "transitory", "weather related" and/or "Port-strike" related and thus transitory, if so, a June rate hike is very much on the table. The release is at 2 p.m. with no press conference. As always, Be ware the initial F_O_M_C knee jerk reaction, it's almost always retraced.

We'll get to our $USD forecast and its implications as it has made a lower low as forecasted (also)m on April 2nd.

It's still very early in the day, I wouldn't expect this morning trend to hold, in fact in a few minutes in may very well reverse.