Tuesday, April 7, 2015

A.M. Update

It would seem most of the world caught up with US gains overnight, the Nikkei,  China, Europe which was on vacation holiday for Easter with closed markets yesterday are all trading or have closed fairly significantly higher on the US bad jobs data is good news cue, although this set-up was apparent last week, apparently on leaked Jobs data.

Just a note of interest, the BBA (Australian Central Bank) held rates in place on an expected cut and like the US jobs data saw a massive front running spike indicating that the policy decision had been leaked, apparently it was so flagrant that regulators will be investigating so we're apparently not the only ones.

The $USD gained overnight and is back at pre-NFP levels , sending EUR/USD lower and USD/JPY higher, although there seems to be no correlation with the broader market.

$USDX back to pre-NFP level.

ES and the rest of the Index futures/market averages look set to pick up where they left off yesterday which is what we expected.
 ES overnight, less volatile than it looks.

The crude pullback I expected, but has recently been in line, looks like it may actually make the move today. This 5 min chart is showing a negative divergence, I'll check USO in the cash market and see if we are getting the same there. If so, the partial USO long position may be closed.

And Gold also is showing a 5 min negative divergence, but it has held the divergences suggesting a swing-style pullback, again I'll likely update it as well.

I don't expect much different today than yesterday until these divergences which were ruthless in building yesterday actually reach the 10-15 min charts, then I would be looking to take some action, but for now, lets just let the market let us know when its time to take action whether you are long a trade or looking to get short on price strength.

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