Market Update

I've been working on the A.M. Update, which takes quite a while to put together as does the Daily Wrap, to get some idea, just look at the time it is posted, I start as soon as the market closes and maybe have 30 minutes of time in which I take the dogs out, get something to drink etc. so if I post at 8:30 p.m., it's about 4 hours in to that post.

While I really would like to get the A.M. Update out as it is a remarkable "Study in Contrasts", it's like a world in which 1+1=3 and the accounting in that world just can't hang on for long, but it's proving to be too time consuming so I'll post it later today.

The market's overnight action and cash market opening action thus far is EXACTLY what we were looking for in the reversal process with a lot of support from near term Leading Indicators, 3C charts, etc.

This is what the reversal process looks like, although it won't be a strong picture until it's finished, then you'll see days like today fit in perfectly.

The daily SPY chart with yesterday's bullish Hammer / support area.  Remember, a reversal candle carries no target with it, but you can generally assume the larger the hammer, the more the volume, the stronger the reversal. As mentioned yesterday, this is not a strong reversal candle with a short lower wick, not the best real body and low volume, but it's perfect for where the market needs to be to complete the reversal process (drawn in yellow).

However, the market needed a lot of support to pull this off, take a look at HYG today as a ramping lever along with VXX, if I had to guess and checked Capital Context, I'd guess their SPY Arbitrage signal was active (a ramping / manipulation lever to lift the market), which means one thing, the market's strength itself is not there, not even for a simple reversal process,  but this is far from news to us over the last week and a half or so.

As I said last night, the 1 min charts were in line or slightly positive supporting upside at least early today and the reversal process...

 SPY 1 min intraday with a leading positive divegrence at yesterday's a.m. lows and the "Flameout" on the downside and nearly in line this morning, NEARLY.

It was the charts just after 1 min as I was posting yesterday that are bothersome for the market, but right in line with a weakened market in the end stages of the last week's move, the reversal process.

As early as the next chart, SPY 2 min I'm sure you can see the difference in tone and it just keeps going from there.

SPY 5 min leading negative through the entire forecasted move from April 2nd.

IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE SPY 15 MIN IS GOING TO PUT IN THE DEFINITIVE NEGATIVE DIVEGRENCE THAT HAS BEEN ONE OF THE FEW SIGNALS I'VE BEEN PATIENTLY WAITING ON.

Index futures intraday are similar to the SPY/averages' charts, they don't look great. Here's 1 min ES as an example...

ES/SPX e-mini Futures 1 min. Enough of a positive divegrence to ramp ES futures higher starting about 2 hours before the European open to about an hour after (the positive divergence) and then the ES move higher as expected for the cash open, but since then, not pretty just like the SPY charts after 1 min.

As far as I can tell, this is EXACTLY in line with what we have seen in all indications and right on track, although I'd much rather see the market moving strongly in the direction of our positions or toward better levels for new positions, I can't say I'm displeased with the reality of the market and the reversal process and our analysis of it. Everything remains predictably on track which is where I want it.

I'll have more specific asset updates as they ripen, likely through the day.

The A.M. Update which is more than just covering the news events as you can get that anywhere, is especially interesting this morning so although it may seem irrelevant being released later in the day, please try to get to reading it if you can, it's important information, something approaching a new indicator if it were possible.