VXX Follow Up / Update

After the last post closing VXX, which I consider to be a longer term position, but one that needs a little more baby-sitting than others.

For the purposes of the P/L, this morning worked out a little better than Thursday to take gains off the table, remember this is a straight equity long, no leverage, no options.

The P/L came out to a gain of +7.1%.

I like VXX bigger picture, quite a bit actually.

 The daily chart with a range/accumulation and then a head fake/stop run/accumulation followed by the upside reversal that head fake moves so often precede. Looking at the daily chart, it was almost a deal breaker in closing down the VXX long, but I think there's a chance of good volatility, which means opportunities and I believe we can slip back in to VXX/UVXY long without much trouble at better prices.

The longer term 10, 15, 60 min charts like the 60 min above look great for VIX upside, again primary trend, big picture, but the market is always going to have bounces and jiggles, some worth trading, some not worth trading.

Very short term intraday, VIX futures didn't give me a reason to ignore the charts below and leave the VXX position open, which right now is looking like we made the right choice at the right time.

1 min VIX futures chart wasn't showing any improvement on the gap up, in fact it was getting worse so I had to take the short term charts below a bit more seriously.

It has been these charts starting around the 3 min mark, so fairly near term that have been bothering me, they were leading positive at the head fake and range just before that, then went sharply negative (short term) in a small area, pretty fast.

This is the inverse XIV, inverse of VXX which trades with the market rather than against it so it looks like a mirror reversal of VXX and the divergences here confirm the 3 min chart above so short term it looked like a good time to take VXX gains off the table, make those resources available for other positions or to at least protect them until things look a bit more stable in signals.


I still think a near term bounce is looking pretty high probability and will cover that in a separate post.