Wednesday, August 12, 2020

Afternoon Update

It's another strange day from the overnight session's erasure of yesterday's losses, but got even stranger as of the cash open. S&P tagging its February high is not so strange being it was less than a half percent away. NASDAQ and Small Caps are nearly opposite again, except today NASDAQ is the best performing trading at session highs, Small Caps the worst performing, near session lows- the exact opposite of the last 3 days

NASDAQ 100 (1m) leading Small Caps- .It's not unusual to see differences in relative performance, but the averages generally trend together in the same direction. This behaviour the past 4 days is very strange. At least in today's case, I don't think the S&P was able to tag its Feb. high without the mega-caps. Apple's weight is equal to that of 90% of the Russell 2000. While S&P traded higher as small caps were in favor the past few day, it's exposure to the mega-cap weakness had weighed it down.

Technology is the standout on the upside, but the defensive sectors a also solid (all of which were the weakest yesterday. Likewise, Financials and Banks that were very strong yesterday, are the weakest today. The re-opening trades that were strong yesterday, are notably weak today.

Credit hasn't gotten any worse since the last update, but it is lagging behind.

SP-500 (5m) and HYG

There's slight relative performance difference in volatility. Russell 2000's gauge is slightly weaker since the afternoon., NASDAQ's is slightly stronger suggesting perhaps we see another flip-flop of sector/style factors. 

NASDAQ 100 (1m) and its volatility gauge (white) displaying relative strength. 

VVIX, however, has been notably strong for a week. 

SP-500 (5m) and VVIX relative strength building for a week, about the same time we saw the ABI plunge to the 17 zone las week.

While precious metals bounced a bit, my view is the same as last night. I don't think they've settled yet.

GLD (15m) 

I'm closing the rest of the PLUG long.

PLUG (15m) I don't like today's price action, it loos like it could go all the way down to fill the gap. If so, I'll take another look at it then.

While I expect the S&P will fight tooth and nail to hold the record closing high designation, volatility futures' 3C char has been strengthening throughout the day. On any other day I'd be weary of weak market closing action.

VIX futures (1m)

I'm going to get this post out. If anything changes before the close I'll have an update. I expect the Daily Wrap will be here tonight, but I am getting back on the phone with support after the close.

*Actually the market is getting ugly the last few minutes. 


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