Intraday Update

Here are some long and short trades from last night's list that look good into the close so far for execution-for specifics refer to the spread sheet trades from last night.


MNTG, SLV, JPM, GS, UGP, KLAC, DTV, JOYG, TXN, SOHU, STD,
LOGI, DSTI, ADBE, SLH, ATW

A LOT TO CHOOSE FROM

I know tonight's list is a lot of stocks and as of yet there are no stops, initially you can probably use about a 10%-15% stop to figure your position sizing, hopefully before market open I'll have the stops and notes complete.

Pretty much any of these trades can be taken at market open at market price. I especially like the few long positions near the bottom. I would consider these "Cats and Dogs-Rally" type stocks; as such I wouldn't put a lot of money into them. However, they look a lot like the setups that were generating the double digit daily returns in January. For now, I'd keep them as speculative positions and don't swing for the fences, keep the risk low and the stops a little wide on them-give them a chance to work.

The short positions, for the most part are all in high probability/low risk areas. While I would keep the stops a little tighter, these are the type of shorts we may have to take several swings at before we hit the trend so we want to keep the losses to about 1% of position or portfolio depending on how you are applying your risk model. If you need help figuring it out with position sizing and stops, find the trades you like and email me, I'll help you with position sizing.

There are so many because the recent rally has put many in a great area to short them. You needn't trade them all, but rather make sure you are not chosing trades that are highly correlated to positions you may already have. The recent ideas (within the last week) are also still in play.

Emil me with any questions. Also broadly speaking and you'll see it in the recent trade ideas-especially the intraday post last week, we are short Silver -SLV (or buy ZSL-2x leveraged Ultrashort) and long gold.

Check out www.Trade-Guild.net  for today's market analysis for this week.

GOOG looking like a good short

One of my new Custom indicators measuring price/volume relationships showing weakness in GOOG

A daily chart of 3C and an extended long range 3C in blue-both showing negative divergences in GOOG or distribution.

Despite any bounce attempt, this looks like a decent short today.

This am's trading action

This morning's trading range as of 10:02, a break above or below it usually determines which way the market will close for the day.

5-min 3C showing selling into yesterday afternoon's Buy Trade Program

Another 5-min 3C showing the same with a negative leading divergence this morning.

Here's  1-min chart suggesting that price will rally from support or at least try at least once more

*Update
The Trades I'm especially liking-whether you got in already or are looking to include:


CYMI
KLAC
UGP
GOOG
GS
DGP

All from last night's list

TRADES FOR THE 26TH ARE UP

There are longs and shorts in there, some interesting plays as well considering the market's Buy program that hit around 1:45-I think it was filling a gap, but tomorrow we'll know more. In any case, it gives us better short positioning.

Adding a Few Positions Intraday

Here are a few positions that will be on tonight's list, but you may want to take a look at them now:




-JPM (S) and GS (S) are both in good position for a new short or an add-to
-PWRD is a short featured here, it is a good short or add-to now
-EDZ (L) looks good and it's pulling back intraday-I'd establish a small position for now and add later

-TWM (L) an UltraShort on the Russell 2000, make sure you are not too correlated with the market in other positions or you'll have to reduce this one. This is your basic market short.

-Possibly a little DGP (GOLD double long ETN) Keep this position small as it is still "iffy", but it has broken and held a major downtrend line and is up today.

-GOOG (S)

-(S) SLV or (L) ZSL I believe silver has downside and it is not as correlated to gold s people think.
-AAPL (S) is acting perfectly in a Broadening top scenario
-UGP (S) this is another I'd establish a small position in for the moment
-KLAC (S) KLAC has fallen out of a flag and is a long term short
-CRM (S) there's a high probability this is coming off the right shoulder of a H&S top, this is a high probability/low risk short.
-FLEX (S) appears to be coming down out of a large triangle top.
-CYMI (S)-especially if it appears it will close below $31.37-this is a large double top.

New Trades are up-All are for the open at marlet

New Trades are up-anything from the list-the new list is in play.

Boring

For awhile today it looked as if we might see a bearish engulfing pattern-the Q's did, but the rest of the market didn't and XLF was actually up today. Everything was missing any sense of direction. It may be like a doji day (which it wasn't) in which upside momentum waned and perhaps tomorrow we'll see something definitive, but as of now, still sitting on our hands and waiting for this market to tell us when o jump back in -either one gun or both barrels blazing.

If you are a swing or day trader let me know and I'll come up with some trades for you, but if you are following our current model-Trend, then just sit tight.\\
a few trades of recent that I still like-PWRD (S), AMZN (S), MOT (S), the TASR long has performed well-18% in 3 days, MSO (L) still looks ok, CRR (S) is performing, INAP was up as much as 10% in  days.

So for now, again, we'll sit this out another day, but at least we are moving in the right direction.

Patience is a Virtue

Right now we are sitting on our hands until the effects of the Fed decision are fully realized. In the past, the original reaction (this time was a rally) is almost always the wrong reaction and the markets reverse within days. It's my opinion that the Fed is making $ for the banks and such more expensive for a single reason and moving the discount rate terms from 30 days back to overnight confirms my suspicions which have been with me for awhile as Fed and Treasury statements in the near past have all seem to be aimed at the banks, "Close your Carry Trade Positions"-I see this move as a shot across the bow, thus perhaps that's why we saw such a wild early market decline today.

We will see. Thursday/Friday formed a small Harami reversal and today-thus far it looked like we were not only getting confirmation but a bearish engulfing pattern as well.

If you are not afraid of risk then I think you can short in these areas, we prefer to sit on our hands for a day and wait confirmation-we won't be missing that much of the move. It will also allow me time to see who is going to get hit the hardest (read as -where has most of the Carry Trade money gone?-gold, semi's, emerging markets?). So that's the analysis for now, it may be updated later today.

No post last night

I had a lot going on last night and didn't get to post, but basically we have been in a holding pattern because there's no confirmation on the short side and not close to enough evidence or market strength to go out on the long limb. The Fed's announcement caught many if not everyone off guard, except a select few I think got wind of it around 2:15 pm-look at the Q's or any market average at that time and watch the behavior. In any case, this will likely be a day were you might want to take a look t the shorts on the list, tonight I will see were the high probability low trades ended up and post them, but others mentioned recently can probably be initiated.  I might wait until a morning trading range forms and breaks to the downside or the 2:15 level from yesterday is taken out or the open from yesterday is taken out. Just some sort of confirmation and maybe a little later in the am after the retail trades are out of the cards.