Wolf on Wall Street

Monday, March 15, 2010

Lesson Learned

Last night's list is performing horribly today, but for those of you who have been at this site for more then a few weeks may have noticed something different about the list, it was packed full of limit order trades only; this is because these trades were swing trade setups and we are still technically (may change at the close) in an uptrend, but as you know, I'm expecting a downside reversal. If you followed instructions and read the notes, hopefully you didn't get into any of these trades that bombed.

POINT IS-Read the notes! Use the Stops! I rarely use limit order trades, but if you see them, there's a good reason for it and today is proof positive of that reason. All of the trades except for one that were for market execution are either profitable or have offered profits as high as +6% on the day. So if you followed the notes, you shouldn't have been in any losing trades except potentially one.

On another note-Read the most current post at Trade-Guild on XLF, I'll add more later, but this will explain the situation, where we are at and how we'll move forward. Before I could even finish the post, the 1-min 3C chart was right on and we saw a break or resistance. If the 30 minute chart continue to develop, then we need to be very cautious indeed.

TRADES FOR MARCH 15, 2010 ARE UP

You'll notice quite a few longs on the list, be sure to check the notes; if they are red, then they are limit orders, if any trades DO NOT specifically say "Limit order" then they can be executed on the open at market.

The long trades are mostly swing trade setups, but keep a watch on the shorts on the last weeks for of lists, they are still good and the market seems to be turning, but the long swing trades are in good setup positions.

If you have questions, feel free to email. Again I mention, go to Trade-Guild and sign up for emails of the posts or you can do it here:

Also sign up to follow my twitter feed to see my real time charts posted during the day on Chart.ly-just click the link below:

Follow Brandt on Twitter

Thursday, March 11, 2010

TRADES FOR MARCH 12, 2010 ARE UP

S&P 1150 was what I feared, a magnet, gut I have been watching carefully and developed some new indicators as well that are sating the same thing we've been seeing all along, this is a retracement and more, but doesn't seem to be the start of anything beyond that and as such I'm hesitant to throw out long trades on the list, especially because there are so few that are set-ups. Right now a rising tide is simply lifting all boats, there's no great accumulation or set up and the cats and dogs rally is even getting thin.

If you are holding a long from the cats and dogs long list (longs below $5 posted in the last 2 weeks) and it hasn't stopped out, continue to hold it and take any gift the market gives-they are usually 1-day 8-16% moves.

Although without confirmation I can't go crazy offering up short sales, but there are a few bucking the rising tide and I've listed a few the last week and more tonight.

Take a look, I feel they are in good position now.

As always, email me with any questions. Brandt@Trade-Guild.net

Latest Trades Link
The newest trades are at the bottom of the lost-FOLLOW YOUR STOPS AND RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN!!

Second Verse Same as the First

Patience-I posted a few shorts yesterday, the longs that you may be holding are still ok to hold, but watch your stops.

We still need downside confirmation, but we are seeing a lot of negative things happen.

Follow Brandt on Twitter
I recommend following me as I post dozens of charts on Chart.ly during the day. If you don't have a twitter account it will take 2 mins. to setup. My name is BT24_7.

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

A few shorts

Here are a couple of shorts from this week's list that are looking pretty god now, I'll be back with more later.

FRZ
ELGX

Both short-here and now seems to be fine. Read the notes with the stops attached in this week's Spreadsheet.

Back to Patience

**For whatever reason, this did not get posted last night

Last week I posted several shorts, you'll want to take a look at those. Any of the long trades from this week can be held with the stops in place assuming you did not treat them as anything other then speculative positions, a few more should pop, but I feel we will see a reversal very soon. We want to wait for confirmation so as I occasionally post, right now is the time to use the one edge you have over Wall Street, patience.

If we get it tomorrow, I'll post an intraday update with the trades that are best positioned for the move.

Tuesday, March 9, 2010

Something is Amiss

Take a look at the latest post at www.Trade-Guild.net

Also something is wrong with the spreadsheet's P/L calculations, we're working on it now.

Trades for the 9th are up

As you can see, the cats and dogs are getting VERY speculative-hit and run, 1-2 day gainers. Keep the trade size appropriate to the risk, meaning small. The trades that didn't hit from yesterday and those I mentioned intraday today are all still in play.

If you have questions email me, but this is a sign that the end of the rally is just about here when they start to get this speculative.

Good luck-RISK MANAGEMENT!!!!!

Monday, March 8, 2010

From Last Night's List

If you haven't bought anything or shorted, here are a few that are looking interesting

*CAEI L
*CNTF S
*CYPB L
*TRMA L
*VITA L the pullback right now has created a lower risk trade if you haven't bought it
*ELGX S is in a great position in the bear flag right now
*RZ L looks interesting, like it may move
* CPSL L is up already over 12%-you may want to watch it to take some profits, depending on what the market does or how big your position is
* JADE L same as above-it's been up over 6% already this am

See the SpreadSheet for notes

Sunday, March 7, 2010

TRADES FOR MARCH 8TH

THERE ARE A LOT OF "CATS AND DOGS LONGS HERE, BUT THE TEND TO MOVE QUICKLY FOR 1-3 DAY GAINS THAT ARE SIGNIFICANT. I HAVE PLENTY OF SHORTS, BUT UNTIL WE SEE OUR TURN AROUND WHICH I THINK WE'LL SEE SOON, WE'LL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET AND THE CATS AND DOGGS ARE USUALLY A SIGN OF THE END OF THE UPTREND-TAKE THEM WHILE YOU CAN

3C Quick Start

Many of the charts you see here at WOWS are my proprietary indicator 3C which reveals underlying institutional money movements and often contradicts price. To understand the annotations made on charts, you must first understand that 3C has no numerical value, it is a pure divergence indicator. Positive divergences represent accumulation by smart money, negative divergences represent distribution by smart money and when 3C trades with price, that is trend confirmation.

The chart annotation system is simple; white arrows represent relative positive divergences, red arrows represent relative negative divergences and green arrows represent trend confirmation. When 3C is in a white or red box, that represents a leading positive or negative divergence, leading divergences are the most powerful.

We analyse 3C in multiple timeframes, the longer the timeframe the stronger the accumulation. 1-2 min timeframes represent intraday moves, a 5 min timeframe can represent a day or two and 15 min timeframes average trends of a swing trade nature. 30 and 60 min charts can move the market for a month or more and daily charts can be over a year.

You'll get use to seeing the charts and understanding how the multiple timeframe analysis works and works well.

Welcome to Wolf on Wall Street.

The trades featured here are meant to maximize returns with the least risk and highest probabilities. Unless otherwise mentioned, all trades are meant to be executed at market. I prefer long-term trending trades which perform well in rising markets, but really stand out in declining markets. However, we get occasional one day gifts 30,40,60% 1-day gains. I'd urge you to consider taking some or all off the table in such cases, the markets don't give gifts like that often or for very long. Most of the returns that make the system outperform so well come in short-entry trades. If you are opposed to short trades, this is not the system for you, unless you are ok with buying an inverse ETF. If you would like more information about the truth about shorting stocks, just email me.

Risk management. I recommend a specific and consistent risk management approach to all positions. In most cases we try for 2% risk money (2% of portfolio) unless such a position size exceeds 15-20% of overall portfolio in actual position size. Each trader is different and each has a different allowance of open trades. I like to keep the overall money in the trade around 10-15% of portfolio per position in case of gaps against you. Stops are generally executed at the end of day and I personally never place a stop order, all my stops are mental; remember, the middle man gets to see everyone's cards. When you are not in tune with the market or opportunities just aren't that spectacular, I take my risk per position down to 1% or even half a percent of portfolio value.

Each trader is different and must determine their own level of comfort with risk. I do have a channel stop which I provide to TeleChart/StockFinder users for automated stops, I appreciate you using my links to sign up if you do. The Trend Channel catches trends and works well as it automatically adjusts for each stock's volatility. Arbitrary exits based on nervousness about the markets WILL decrease the portfolio performance dramatically. This system will not ever get you in at market bottoms or tops. The recent 1 year performance against the Russell 2k buy and hold had the system beating it by 3:1. Ultimately it is up to you as to how you proceed, but I'm always available to help you determine what might work best for you.

I do use other scans and systems when market conditions warrant their use and may change strategy with market conditions.

The MOST IMPORTANT tool you have to bring you long term success is RISK MANAGEMENT. There are plenty of articles linked at Trade-Guild.net on Risk Management. We can be wrong 75% of the time and still outperform the market with solid, consistent risk management.

Position Sizing

The position sizes noted in the positions @ 2% risk of portfolio are based on a $20,000 portfolio-adjust as needed. Due to tight stops, there is the possibility, even probability that one position could take up the entire portfolio. You need to decide how many positions you want to trade and reduce the position size according to that. For instance, if you want to trade 5 positions in a $20,000 portfolio, no one position should be valued at more than $4,000-not risk money or 2% rule, but share price entry x shares.