LOTS OF IDEAS

I don't want to overwhelm you with ideas, but I also want to give you the good ideas I see right now in case you need exposure to a particular industry group-remember, we try not to coorelate positions to closely-IT'S NOT GOOD RISK MANAGEMENT IF 2 OR 3 CLOSELY CORRELATED POSITIONS ALL MOVE TOGETHER. This is the only kind of real diversification I advocate.

Any way, tonight you have 26 new ideas to look at, almost all are for execution at the open except for 2 or 3.

We may see some higher prices early on in the day-it may even develop into an up day, but it's nothing to worry about. Use higher prices to add to shorts. Check out the trades from the 27th of April-lots of good stuff there that can be added to on a bounce, remember-we want to add at higher prices most of the time, this is why I've been saying, build your positions, don't buy it all at once until we get downside confirmation.

To understand what is going on in the market and how serious these down days have been, make sure to read the last 5-6 posts at http://www.trade-guild.net/


If you have questions, as always feel free to email me. For those of you whose subscription has run up, I'll be resetting memberships tomorrow so if you'd like to continue on, we'd love to have you. Just visit the Paypal link at Trade Guild and send me an email just like the first time. Thanks and have a great week everyone!

How did you do this week?

Fortunately we were able to catch all the right moves in the market as far as reversals, up and down days. Did you utilize these days to add to, start or clean up positions?

I can give you the ideas, but you need to do the work. Remember, we get paid to take risk, but in Technical Analysis, risk is always measured against the probability of success. The last set of trades I gave you are all at a profit, one over 10% in two days.

This post is one I want you to remember because I DO believe that we are about to see a real opportunity in a move to the down side. Look at the moves up in the market over the last week. Even counting the breakout to new high ground, we are down over 2% and that damage was done pretty much in two days. There is a lot of artificial support that has been propping this market up, but it's either crumbling under the pressure or it's being removed. Smart money is discounting the future to the downside and aggressively.

So look at the trades you are in. Do they make sense to you? Would you enter them Monday morning if you weren't already in them? If not, maybe it's time to let them go. Tops are tricky, they are volatile and a lot of money can be lost trying to catch that top. This is why I have been telling you all week, use the up days to build a position, but in small pieces until we see that downside confirmation. We need the SPY to close below the 118.20 level, hopefully on massive volume and we'll see a move down that will be fast and furious packed with panic sellers as the move of April 23rd set up a bull trap. There will be a lot of investors/traders, nearly 4 trading weeks worth, that will be at a loss the minute the SPY crosses 118.20 and they will panic and the market will snowball down from there.

There are shorts everywhere. Sunday night I'll have some good ideas up for you, but there are already tons of great ideas on the list. Take the weekend to look at them. Email me with your questions. Remember, any time you are in the market, you are at risk in any stock, so make the most of it or don't be in it. Be patient, make sure you are practicing safe money management and above all, BE PATIENT, we are almost there.

Have a great weekend!

A FEW IDEAS,

TAKE A LOOK AT TRADE-GUILD TONIGHT http://www.trade-guild.net/2010/04/as-expected.html

It looks like the bounce may be over, so now is the time (if in fact this is true), to start adding a little more to your position, but you still don't want to be fully committed. As mentioned, clean up those long positions, especially the non-performers.

If you have questions, don't hesitate to email me.

Bounce , Bounce, Bounce.....

Last night I wrote on Trade Guild that I thought we'd see a bounce up, we got that today . 3C is looking like we'll see some more tomorrow, as are the after hour indications. I wouldn't be surprised however, to see the day end mixed, neutral or down.

Again, you can use today to enter reasonable short positions, I'd advocate buying the position or shorting it in 1/4 or 1/3's. The idea is not to fill out the position until we get downside confirmation (the bounce is over). All of the ideas listed, especially the broader ETF's, are all good selections. The best strategy would be wait until you see a breakdown, or a new low and then add to the position, intraday is the best or near the close.

The move up today was unimpressive and the market breadth was horrible, the dominant price volume relationship was close up/volume down which is actually the most bearish configuration even through we saw a net gain on the day.

I'd say a break of 118.20-118.40 on the SPY would be a trigger to add. You could also add at a run up to resistance at the 122 area, but you'd need to close out that part of the position if the SPY were to close above 122 or at least thin it out, this is why I'm saying "go slow putting on your shorts". Also that's an ideal area to take profits on longs and reduce your long exposure.

The break on the QQQQ would be at $48.90 and the DIA around $109.70.

My favorite tend to be the Ultra-Short ETF's. Be sure you do NOT over-correlate positions in similar industries.

If you are using 3C, watch the 5 minute chart for negative divergences near resistance-that would be an ideal time to start building or adding a short position.

Today's advance is meaningless in the context of the damage done on the last move down. I believe this is a bull-trap and it will trigger on the SPY at 118.20, QQQQ 48.90 and the DIA at 109.70. Watch for big volume as price crosses below that level, at that point it is likely you'll see a waterfall sell-off.

Email any questions to me at BT24_7@yahoo.com

DONT FORGET TO CHECK TRADE GUILD

The article calling the reversal was posted Monday afternoon, it came true almost to a tee using 3C, it's not me -it's my indicator. Check it out.

THIS IS WHAT WE'VE BEEN WAITING FOR

It's time to start loading the truck up, don't be reckless, you may want to initiate positions and add to them on pullbacks (if you didn't already today based on my last post).

I have a lot of ideas, longs, stocks, and ETFs. Again, don't be reckless, stick to the 2% rule, but get that cash to work in the market. Downside moves can be very fast and you don't want to miss them-FEAR is stronger than GREED!

Bulltrap to be sprung?

A close below 1207.50 area should do it, check the recent shorts. Some other ideas would be ETF's that are Ultrshort or short financials like SKF (long) or FAZ (long). You may also want some market exposure through an ETF like TWM. Right now, I have a lot of shorts on the spread sheet, most will be good plays, even if they have crossed through their stops. A Bull trap usually sees a fast move down, that is why I saw get in there and get broad exposure to the short side, maybe clean up the longs. If we get the close I mentioned, you'll want to have at least 50/50 short/long exposure and maybe even heavier on the short side, although another day of confirmation will allow you time to get up to about a 70/30 ratio.

Tonight, I'll post individual ideas that are new, I want to make sure we get what I think we are going to get before I have you commit capital that may end up being counter trend. There are very few longs I would consider AT THIS MOMENT.

Look for a new Spreadsheet tonight with new ideas. Remember not to make any short position too big, they must conform to the 2% rule/position sizing and I'd enter half of the intended position s close to the close as possible unless the break below the mentioned level comes intraday on heavy volume and the retest of resistance-(1207 area) fails, then intraday trades would make sense, but if the close is not below our level, you'll want to thin them out before the close.

Bull Trap

Take a look at the last post at Trade-Guild.net. Then take a look at the recent shorts. I'll add more tonight, but I think there's a strong chance a bulltrap was just set.

Grab Bag

I'm having some trouble with the spreadsheet tonight, so I'm listing the trades here as you'd find them on the spreadsheet.

Symbol/Position long or short/ Stop/ Notes and Targets



COIN/ L/ $.86/ target $1.48 speculative

AKS/ S/ $20.10/ target $12

XOMA/ L/ $.63/ target=1.50 speculative

LSCC/ L/ $3.81/ target $7

CPF/ L/ $1.90/ speculative, but could be a big winner-target $5.75+

EMKR/ L/ $1.15/ TARGET =POSSIBLY $4

CRBC/ L/ $1/ VERY SPECULATIVE-COULD BE A BIG MOVER-TARGET AS HIGH AS $5+

BAC/ S/ $19.07 /LIMIT ORDER <$18.11 TARGET $14, MAYBE LOWER

STD/ S/ $15/ LIMIT ORDER<$13.50 TARGET BELOW $10

NVDA/ S/ $17.40/ LIMIT ORDER< $16.36-TARGET $14-$11.50

STP/ S/ $14.67/ TARGET $11-$8

I'll get them on the spread sheet as soon as it starts behaving. We had 7% and 10% movers today from last night's list! I hope you made some $$

LONG TRADES

Here are a few nice looking longs that look ready to break out of bases. Just remember your risk management rules, no position loses more then 1-2% of portfolio value, do not over correlate positions and be cautious with speculative trades. Last, take a gift when you get it.

Good luck. Intermediate term/long term, still looking for a significant move down.