Looking For a Rally

A short lived rally and chances are excellent we'll see a bear-flag which will set up numerous second chance positions or add-to's. It's your choice whether to cover here and try to reestablish at higher prices, this market is so volatile we are just holding and will ride out any drawdown.

However, you can also take partial profits, hedge with longs, and use option strategies. I feel we'll get at least a few days of downside relief, possibly close to a week, but we'll have to see what 3C says at that point. I would NOT be chasing shorts at the moment, but all the shorts posted in May will be the same target shorts that we'll lean heavily into upon the end of this bounce.

For a few quick upside trades, see tonight's list. As we approach what I believe will be a downside reversal, I'll post the best positioned shorts or inverse ETFs. See Tonight's post at Trade-Guild for the general analysis for this upcoming week.

Remember, these are quick longs for the most part-if you get a gift, take it and be cautious with the position size considering the market's recent behavior and susceptibility to overnight news.

The two last trades may be less speculative, more solid, but the others have a higher rate of return if they pop. Honestly, I'd prefer to sit and wait this out, but sometimes you need to hedge the market and these trades may do it. I saw very few, really almost no high quality long positions that are for trends. The market will be setup for amazing shorts if we can get a good 3-4 day bounce so keep your powder dry, don't swing for the fences right now. And email me if you have questions.

Patience

WE DON'T CHASE, if you have been reading the posts of the last week, you should be substantially short in any number of excellent ETFs that are making crazy money. The fact is, I wrote two days ago on T.G to expect a waterfall sell-off this week, today we got it. Do we get follow through Friday? I don't know, but if you want to add or establish new shorts, don't chase this market. Nothing goes straight up or down and tops are extremely volatile so you will get your chance to add or establish at higher prices. Until those higher prices come, there are not really any setups worth mentioning that are high probability at this point and going long is insane right now. So if you got on the boat, congratulations, if you didn't-this is just the top 10-15%-there's plenty of downside and you'll have a chance to jump in at better prices. If you do establish any shorts, make sure they are only a small portion of your intended position, leave room to add on a bounce-it will come at some point.

It's hard to say what will happen next-some think it's capitulation, but just like a top, a bottom is a process and I think that process is just starting. I'd urge patience-Take profits on gifts-moves of 30-40%, maybe leave some on the table though for additional profits.

Lets see what happens tomorrow and over the weekend we'll establish our plan.

I hope you found your $50 worthwhile this month :)

Time to be Still

Or Patient. Again, read the assessment at Trade-Guild, 3C has been right every single day about this market for 2 weeks. The bottom line is we will probably see a relief rally of a day or two. I would not add on the first day, maybe the second but we will have to see when we get there. You can go for some quick longs, but you are really trading counter trend and if you have grabbed the shorts I listed when I said, you are in good shape-DO NOT PANIC in the event of a rally. I'm telling you now the probability is there that the market will rally, it is still within a very bearish context and it is normal and to be expected so you know it's coming, you know it's not changing anything and I'll let you know if it were looking as if it would. When we get close to the reversal I will again add a lot of shorts -depending on which have set up nicely during the bounce. You will also have the opportunity to add to your positions at higher prices which is a great thing.

So, do the hardest thing for a trader, be still, be patient and let this market have it's little stint that sucks in the bulls, it will only add more fuel to the downside move.

PLEASE read TRADE GUILD as all of this is explained in great detail and you'll feel much more confident in holding and being patient.

Any questions or if you just need to trade something, let me know and I'll send you out something, but it's against my advice at this point.

GAP-Bounce?

We thought maybe we'd see a little bounce in the am, things change quick and even quicker with a 1-min divergence which doesn't carry a lot of weight, but the fact is, $118.20 was the load up signal so you should be enjoying the profits right now. Do not discount the possibility of this gap being filled with intraday moves to the upside-do not be concerned about them either, they are another opportunity to get those shorts you may have missed. Remember, my new email-it's on the right side of the blog "Email me questions"

MUST READ TRADE GUILD TONIGHT!

The market has done exactly what we wanted, right down to the break at the specific level of $118.20 on the SPy, which was your trigger to add the shorts in greater quantity. I''m not adding any new positions because between April 27th through ay, there are every short you'd need. I am going to say this-we have what we want, I would lean toward the short ETFs like SKF or FAZ. We don't need our perfect plan fouled up by some company specific news so look at the ETFs that are either UltraShort or Direxion 3x Bear-you buy these long and get short exposure at 2 or 3X the % move. I listed all the juicy ones in the last few days.

We are looking for higher prices early tomorrow, so use that chance to pull the trigger on the shorts. READ TRADE GUILD tonight, everything you need to know to understand what we are doing is right there. If you have questions, email me at BT46n2@Gmail.com

This is what we've been waiting for, you get paid to take risks-Now is the time, we have the probabilities on our side!

Email

For now, if you need to reach me, please email me at BT46n2@gmail.com

Thank you.

TOPS ARE NOT EVENTS, THEY ARE PROCESSES

That being siad, it appeared to be a strong day, but the dominant price volume relationship was as bearish as it gets, so this is typical noise in the top, good for shorting into.

I'm having trouble with the Spreadsheet tonoght, but here are a few shorts to consider:

PFC WRLD C RTI XME MPW

And longs:


JRCC BBI PRWT TRMA

PSID (on the list-definite add to) and VXX  with a stop at 19.19/ target>$26.

Tomorrow , 3C is inconclusive, but the closest thing I see is a intraday negative divergence suggesting some downside. We are still looking for the $118.20-$118.25 level on the SPY to jump in and quick.

QQQQ negative-leading divergence, strong suggestion of at least early a.m. downside and it could migrate to the longer mid-timeframes and create quite a downdraft.

I'll post an intraday update once we see what the morning range will do, but last night gave you a lot of choices to consider and most as good entries today. Email me with any questions and despite what Warren Buffet said about GS, remember he has a large position there-there is distribution, it could even be him.

LOTS OF IDEAS

I don't want to overwhelm you with ideas, but I also want to give you the good ideas I see right now in case you need exposure to a particular industry group-remember, we try not to coorelate positions to closely-IT'S NOT GOOD RISK MANAGEMENT IF 2 OR 3 CLOSELY CORRELATED POSITIONS ALL MOVE TOGETHER. This is the only kind of real diversification I advocate.

Any way, tonight you have 26 new ideas to look at, almost all are for execution at the open except for 2 or 3.

We may see some higher prices early on in the day-it may even develop into an up day, but it's nothing to worry about. Use higher prices to add to shorts. Check out the trades from the 27th of April-lots of good stuff there that can be added to on a bounce, remember-we want to add at higher prices most of the time, this is why I've been saying, build your positions, don't buy it all at once until we get downside confirmation.

To understand what is going on in the market and how serious these down days have been, make sure to read the last 5-6 posts at http://www.trade-guild.net/


If you have questions, as always feel free to email me. For those of you whose subscription has run up, I'll be resetting memberships tomorrow so if you'd like to continue on, we'd love to have you. Just visit the Paypal link at Trade Guild and send me an email just like the first time. Thanks and have a great week everyone!

How did you do this week?

Fortunately we were able to catch all the right moves in the market as far as reversals, up and down days. Did you utilize these days to add to, start or clean up positions?

I can give you the ideas, but you need to do the work. Remember, we get paid to take risk, but in Technical Analysis, risk is always measured against the probability of success. The last set of trades I gave you are all at a profit, one over 10% in two days.

This post is one I want you to remember because I DO believe that we are about to see a real opportunity in a move to the down side. Look at the moves up in the market over the last week. Even counting the breakout to new high ground, we are down over 2% and that damage was done pretty much in two days. There is a lot of artificial support that has been propping this market up, but it's either crumbling under the pressure or it's being removed. Smart money is discounting the future to the downside and aggressively.

So look at the trades you are in. Do they make sense to you? Would you enter them Monday morning if you weren't already in them? If not, maybe it's time to let them go. Tops are tricky, they are volatile and a lot of money can be lost trying to catch that top. This is why I have been telling you all week, use the up days to build a position, but in small pieces until we see that downside confirmation. We need the SPY to close below the 118.20 level, hopefully on massive volume and we'll see a move down that will be fast and furious packed with panic sellers as the move of April 23rd set up a bull trap. There will be a lot of investors/traders, nearly 4 trading weeks worth, that will be at a loss the minute the SPY crosses 118.20 and they will panic and the market will snowball down from there.

There are shorts everywhere. Sunday night I'll have some good ideas up for you, but there are already tons of great ideas on the list. Take the weekend to look at them. Email me with your questions. Remember, any time you are in the market, you are at risk in any stock, so make the most of it or don't be in it. Be patient, make sure you are practicing safe money management and above all, BE PATIENT, we are almost there.

Have a great weekend!

A FEW IDEAS,

TAKE A LOOK AT TRADE-GUILD TONIGHT http://www.trade-guild.net/2010/04/as-expected.html

It looks like the bounce may be over, so now is the time (if in fact this is true), to start adding a little more to your position, but you still don't want to be fully committed. As mentioned, clean up those long positions, especially the non-performers.

If you have questions, don't hesitate to email me.