TSO still chugging away

if you are treating this as a swing trade, it's time to start thinking about trailing a stop behind it, you could use a 50 bar m.a. on a 30 min chart for a tight stop or on a 60 min for a bit looser. Or you could just take some partial profits and let it ride and see if this one won't trend another couple of legs higher.

Today's Action

The one thing that stands out in the trading stats is the price : volume relationship which was pretty firmly camped out in the Price up/ Volume up. Often when we get a strong relationship like today's (which is the most bullish) it often serves as a one-day overbought condition. Considering the ascending wedge, I would guess that we'll see some false moves around the wedge, perhaps an upside false breakout and maybe a lower close, It's difficult to say what the configuration will be considering the two events that seem to be high probabilities are  false move and an overbought market (short term).      

SPY Wedge

I've been poking around some sites and have noticed that everyone has the SPY wedge drawn on their charts, so I think the likelihood of a big upside (most likely false breakout) is very high. It may be an intraday move to new highs that closes lower or it may be over a period of days, it's hard to say, but the wedge is there for a reason, trading breadth has become very thin. That doesn't mean that HFTs won't take advantage of a very obvious pattern to generate revenues. So watch for a nice upside move, but at the same time, keep in mind that it's highly likely that it will turn out to be a false move.

RADS TRADE (Short)

 Remember, big triangles are usually tops or bottoms, not consolidation patterns. Note the volume surge on the breakdown from resistance.

 3C daily has been telegraphing distribution throughout the second half of the triangle.

 15 min 3C showing the distribution at resistance and subsequent fall

Here are a couple of stop levels, I'd prefer to go with the wider stop initially. I like the trade right in this area, but you can also wait for a break on the close below the triangle.

MEOH Trade (Short)

 This is similar to a rounding top, MACD also confirming the negative character.

The daily 3C chart

 The flag portion close up

 15 min negative divergence in the flag.

Potential stop based on the Trend Channel, around $29.75

USO

 USO's candlesticks showing two reversal patterns, a Harami or inside day, and a tweezer bottom the last two days. Volume is also picking up today.

There are many different positive divergences, but this 10-min shows a good leading divergence in USO.


It appears as if USO has bottomed.

January Fed Minutes Are Out

It does seem to me that the Fed is clearly signaling that QE2 is the end of the road and perhaps we don't even fulfill QE2. Their justifications for an improving economy are just absurd, like the unemployment print of 9.8 to 9.0 in one month. It seems the data is being massaged to give the Fed a reason to get out.

Let me be clear, I don't believe these projections for a minute, it looks like the Fed is trying to say, "we've succeeded in our task, we are out now" and the truth is seemingly much deeper then this thinly veiled facade. Something is not right with the markets. Very strange things have occurred in treasuries, in the Fed's tone, PIMCOs reversal in their investment strategy and in a number of other ways. Without the Fed pushing prices up, this market could fall like a stone and with no underlying traditional liquidity structure, this could be a very nasty fall. Keep you ears open to what Fed officials are saying, none of it is arbitrary.

READ THE KEY HIGHLIGHTS

market update

As I mentioned earlier, I'm seeing a lot of bearish wedges forming in important averages and
ETFs. Here's a look at the DJ, S&P and Q's


DIA

 Here's the wedge, which is easiest to see on an hourly chart.

 60 min 3C negative divergence

 30 min 3C negative divergence

 10 min 3C negative divergence

QQQQ

 Hourly wedge (bearish)

 30 min 3C negative divergence

 5 min negative divergence

SPY

 Hourly Wedge with volume and MACD confirmation.

 30 min 3C negative divergence

 15 min negative divergence

5 min negative divergence.

We'll have to see if the Plunge protection team arrives to save the market once again, but under normal circumstances, this is a very bearish set up going forward.

GTE Long

 Looks like the next leg up may be starting.

 3C calling the pullback and a positive divergence in the consolidation.

 10-min chart shows more positive divergences in the consolidation

 Today's upside action is confirmed.

Trailing stop using a 35 day simple moving average on a daily chart. If it breaks to a new high, you'll want to move that stop up to at least break even.

OPXT Trade Management

This has made almost a 110% gain for us since late December, if you are still in the trade, it's starting to get a little parabolic and needs to be managed with a trailing stop.

 This stop is on an hourly chart using a simple 35 bas moving average. I'd prefer a stop if it breaks the moving average on a close, but you may wish to stop out intraday.